Mailbag: Highest Percentage of Games Started by Rookies

Posted by Neil Paine on August 16, 2011

Nathan emailed us this question today:

"I stumbled across the 97-98 Cavaliers page for some reason and noticed that during that season they started Wesley Person, Shawn Kemp, Cedric Henderson, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Brevin Knight, with Derek Anderson starting 13 games. So that's 8th-year player Kemp, 3rd-year player Person, and 4 rookies in the top 6 in terms of starts! And they made the playoffs!

That has to be the highest percentage of games started by rookies right (discounting the first few seasons of the NBA)?"

Unfortunately our complete start data only goes back to 1983, so I can't speak to teams from early in the NBA's existence (except to say that, obviously, everyone would be a rookie in 1949-50). Since 1983, though, here are the teams that gave the most starts to 1st-year players:

Year	Team	GP	Rookie GS	%	Rookie Primary Starters	W	L	WPct	SRS	Plyf	DvChmp
1987	Cavaliers	82	242	59.0%	R. Harper, Hot Rod Williams, B. Daugherty	31	51	0.378	-3.18	0	0
1998	Cavaliers	82	241	58.8%	Z. Ilgauskas, Brevin Knight, C. Henderson	47	35	0.573	3.06	1	0
1989	Heat	82	223	54.4%	Grant Long, Kevin Edwards, Rony Seikaly	15	67	0.183	-11.13	0	0
2009	Grizzlies	82	220	53.7%	O.J. Mayo, Marc Gasol, Darrell Arthur	24	58	0.293	-5.22	0	0
1991	Kings	82	195	47.6%	Lionel Simmons, Travis Mays, D. Causwell	25	57	0.305	-6.28	0	0
2002	Grizzlies	82	162	39.5%	Pau Gasol, Shane Battier	23	59	0.280	-6.74	0	0
2005	Bulls	82	161	39.3%	Chris Duhon, Luol Deng	47	35	0.573	0.65	1	0
2003	Nuggets	82	161	39.3%	Nene Hilario, J. Harrington, V. Yarbrough	17	65	0.207	-7.41	0	0
1998	Nuggets	82	161	39.3%	Bobby Jackson, Tony Battie, E. Washington	11	71	0.134	-11.74	0	0
1990	Spurs	82	151	36.8%	David Robinson, Sean Elliott	56	26	0.683	3.58	1	1
2000	Bulls	82	150	36.6%	Elton Brand, Ron Artest	17	65	0.207	-9.23	0	0
1993	Mavericks	82	147	35.9%	Sean Rooks, Walter Bond	11	71	0.134	-14.68	0	0
1999	Rockets	50	87	34.8%	Michael Dickerson, Cuttino Mobley	31	19	0.620	1.39	1	0
1989	Clippers	82	142	34.6%	Charles Smith, Gary Grant	21	61	0.256	-9.50	0	0
1990	Heat	82	141	34.4%	Sherman Douglas, Glen Rice	18	64	0.220	-9.59	0	0
1992	Nuggets	82	138	33.7%	Dikembe Mutombo, Mark Macon	24	58	0.293	-7.58	0	0
1994	Mavericks	82	136	33.2%	Jamal Mashburn, Popeye Jones	13	69	0.159	-8.19	0	0
1999	Grizzlies	50	82	32.8%	Mike Bibby, Felipe Lopez	8	42	0.160	-8.94	0	0
1986	Knicks	82	133	32.4%	Gerald Wilkins, Patrick Ewing	23	59	0.280	-4.82	0	0
2008	Sonics	82	132	32.2%	Kevin Durant, Jeff Green	20	62	0.244	-8.04	0	0
1994	Lakers	82	132	32.2%	Nick Van Exel, George Lynch	33	49	0.402	-3.93	0	0
1989	Spurs	82	132	32.2%	Willie Anderson, Vernon Maxwell	21	61	0.256	-7.45	0	0
1997	Grizzlies	82	127	31.0%	Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Roy Rogers	14	68	0.171	-10.17	0	0
1983	Clippers	82	122	29.8%	Terry Cummings, Craig Hodges	25	57	0.305	-4.61	0	0
2011	Clippers	82	121	29.5%	Blake Griffin	32	50	0.390	-2.71	0	0
Year	Team	Games	Rookie GS	%	Rookie Primary Starters	W	L	WPct	SRS	Plyf	DvChmp
2009	Blazers	82	119	29.0%	Nicolas Batum	54	28	0.659	5.00	1	0
1993	Bucks	82	119	29.0%	Anthony Avent, Todd Day	28	54	0.341	-3.26	0	0
1989	76ers	82	119	29.0%	Hersey Hawkins, Shelton Jones	46	36	0.561	1.68	1	0
1999	Clippers	50	72	28.8%	Tyrone Nesby, Michael Olowokandi	9	41	0.180	-8.94	0	0
1984	Rockets	82	118	28.8%	Ralph Sampson, Rodney McCray	29	53	0.354	-3.12	0	0
1998	Kings	82	116	28.3%	Anthony Johnson, Michael Stewart	27	55	0.329	-5.83	0	0
1985	Pacers	82	114	27.8%	Vern Fleming	22	60	0.268	-5.46	0	0
1984	Bulls	82	113	27.6%	Ennis Whatley	27	55	0.329	-4.69	0	0
1985	Suns	82	112	27.3%	Mike Holton	36	46	0.439	-2.34	1	0
1997	T-Wolves	82	111	27.1%	Stephon Marbury, Dean Garrett	40	42	0.488	-1.82	1	0
2002	Bulls	82	109	26.6%	Trenton Hassell	21	61	0.256	-8.52	0	0
2002	Warriors	82	109	26.6%	Jason Richardson	21	61	0.256	-4.80	0	0
2009	Nets	82	108	26.3%	Brook Lopez	34	48	0.415	-2.31	0	0
2005	Hawks	82	108	26.3%	Josh Smith, Josh Childress	13	69	0.159	-9.62	0	0
2002	Jazz	82	108	26.3%	Jarron Collins	44	38	0.537	1.20	1	0
2001	Nets	82	108	26.3%	Kenyon Martin	26	56	0.317	-5.30	0	0
1998	Celtics	82	108	26.3%	Ron Mercer, Chauncey Billups	36	46	0.439	-1.96	0	0
2010	Kings	82	107	26.1%	Tyreke Evans	25	57	0.305	-4.06	0	0
1993	Bullets	82	107	26.1%	Tom Gugliotta	22	60	0.268	-6.49	0	0
2003	Heat	82	106	25.9%	Caron Butler	25	57	0.305	-5.13	0	0
2000	Rockets	82	106	25.9%	Steve Francis, Kenny Thomas	34	48	0.415	-0.56	0	0
1992	Warriors	82	106	25.9%	Billy Owens	55	27	0.671	3.77	1	0
2005	Magic	82	104	25.4%	Dwight Howard	36	46	0.439	-2.52	0	0
1995	Bucks	82	102	24.9%	Glenn Robinson	34	48	0.415	-4.30	0	0
2009	Heat	82	101	24.6%	Mario Chalmers	43	39	0.524	0.49	1	0

This entry was posted on Tuesday, August 16th, 2011 at 1:21 pm and is filed under BBR Mailbag, History, Trivia. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

15 Responses to “Mailbag: Highest Percentage of Games Started by Rookies”

Joey Says:
August 16th, 2011 at 4:11 pm
Cool stuff. It seems unless you just picked David Robinson chances are high that the team's going to suck. Correlation between "% of rookie starts" and SRS is probably significant (negatively). Further supports the theory that rookies should get a below average projection when forecasting
NBAGuru Says:
August 16th, 2011 at 6:58 pm
Wow, only 8 teams on the list have winning records, and the majority of those are teams with one or two rookies playing small roles. Looks like Nathan's observation is pretty astute - the only team with a winning record having over even 40% of their starts by rookies was the 98 Cavs. Methinks this reflects how weak the league was in the mid-late 90's, as in any other time that team would've had a mediocre-to-terrible record.

Also, by my reckoning, Robinson had the best rookie season of anybody since 83, which would seem to be supported by the data here.
Neil Paine Says:
August 16th, 2011 at 7:00 pm
#1 - Yeah, correlation between %RookGS and SRS is -0.496. Giving a lot of PT to rookies is almost always a bad sign.
Ryan. Says:
August 16th, 2011 at 10:55 pm
Seems to me, the more we learn about Robinson, the more he blows our mind.
Luck'd Out Says:
August 16th, 2011 at 11:23 pm
I had a feeling that the 2004-2005 Bulls would have been high on here. They had a bunch of one and two year guys headlining their team, and they would have been even higher if Gordon started. I do wonder by who much, though.....

You would also figure that the Grizzlies would be on here a lot, too.....

Interesting list.
Matt Says:
August 17th, 2011 at 12:48 pm
If we assume a player peaks around 24 (correct me if WS has it different, or you want to be more specific), do lineups featuring guys in their 3-5th years win more?
AYC Says:
August 17th, 2011 at 5:28 pm
Yeah, DRob was a rookie at 24....
JB Says:
August 17th, 2011 at 8:59 pm
None of these teams built on these rookie starters and went to win a title within 5 years so far. Some still could. I didn't check all of them but I don't think there were many serious contenders.
Jason J Says:
August 18th, 2011 at 1:18 pm
I actually went to a Cavs game at Gund Arena that year. Surprisingly fun team watch. If Kemp could hold it together and Anderson had developed there, they might have built something decent.
MCT Says:
August 18th, 2011 at 5:31 pm
I'm under the impression that the NBA began keeping track of games started in the 1981-82 season. Before that, no official data exists. Some pre-1981 teams may have tabluted games started on their own, or it might be possible to construct games started data for some teams by going through newspaper box scores (assuming they identify the starters, which older box scores didn't always do).

Based on a Play Index search, this site appears to have data for all players back to 1981-82; data for one team only (Celtics) for 1979-80 and 1980-81, and nothing before that.
Neil Paine Says:
August 18th, 2011 at 7:35 pm
#10 - I have NULL games started in 1982 for the following players:

Carl Bailey
Steve Hayes
Vinnie Johnson
Greg Kelser
Rock Lee
Jackie Robinson
Mike Woodson

1983 is the first season for which we have complete GS (i.e., no NULL values).
MCT Says:
August 18th, 2011 at 11:06 pm
I missed that those seven players had null values -- I stand corrected about 1981-82 being complete.

Bailey, Lee and Robinson each made only brief appearances in the NBA that season, appearing in 1, 2 and 3 games, respectively.

Johnson, Kelser and Woodson were all traded early in the season (Johnson and Kelser were traded for each other). They have GS values shown for the teams they played the bulk of the season with, but are null for the teams they started the season with.

The only player who doesn't really fit into either of the above categories is Hayes. He played for two different teams, appearing in a total of 35 games, and is showing null GS for both teams.

For each team these guys played for, I added up the GS totals for all of the players with known GS. In all cases, they add up to a full 410 (82 X 5 = 410). Based on that, it appears that none of these guys started any games for the teams they are showing null GS.
Neil Paine Says:
August 19th, 2011 at 12:33 am
#12 - Good work, I'm going to file a suggestion w/ Justin that we replace the null values w/ 0.
Panic Says:
August 21st, 2011 at 3:48 pm
It should be noted that that '87 Cavs team at #1 had a rookie Mark Price, who played extensive minutes but did not start any games. If anything, that 59% UNDERestimates the rookies' contributions to the team. A year later, Price was the starting PG and a rookie Kevin Johnson was backing him up. Whoever was in charge of scouting for that Cavaliers team should have had his own religion.
BSK Says:
August 22nd, 2011 at 2:34 pm
That 1989 Heat team was the expansion year for that franchise. While my initial assumption was that it made sense they had a lot of rookie starters that year, none of the other expansion teams from this era appear on the list (though the Grizzlies appear in their second year). Hm.

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