2010 Western Conference Semifinals Preview: L.A. Lakers vs. Utah
Posted by Neil Paine on May 1, 2010
2010 Playoffs Home ▪ 2010 Playoff Previews
1. Los Angeles Lakers
Coach: Phil Jackson
SRS: 4.78 (5th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 92.8 (14th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 108.8 (11th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 103.7 (4th of 30)
How They Got Here:
Won NBA Western Conference First Round (4-2) versus OKC Thunder
Four Factors:
| Team | eFG% | Rank | TOV% | Rank | ORB% | Rank | FT/FGA | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers | 0.496 | 15 | 0.124 | 5 | 0.276 | 7 | 0.221 | 18 |
| Los Angeles Lakers - Opp | 0.484 | 6 | 0.132 | 18 | 0.256 | 9 | 0.195 | 2 |
Roster (w/ 2010 Regular-Season Stats):
| Player | Ag | Ht | Ps | ORtg | %P | DRtg | DPA | P36 | 2P% | 3P% | FT% | AR | TR | PR | Fr | 3t | OR% | DR% | Bk% | St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Artest | 30 | 78 | SF | 106.0 | 16.4 | 105.0 | 0.63 | 11.7 | 45.3 | 35.5 | 68.8 | 13.3 | 14.6 | 1.34 | 25.1 | 40.0 | 4.3 | 9.9 | 0.6 | 2.1 |
| Kobe Bryant | 31 | 78 | SG | 109.1 | 31.4 | 104.4 | -0.73 | 25.0 | 48.7 | 32.9 | 81.1 | 23.8 | 13.5 | 0.36 | 34.5 | 19.2 | 3.1 | 12.2 | 0.5 | 2.1 |
| Pau Gasol | 29 | 84 | PF | 120.3 | 22.2 | 101.8 | 2.24 | 17.8 | 53.9 | 0.0 | 79.0 | 15.0 | 13.9 | 0.10 | 42.9 | 0.6 | 11.4 | 22.7 | 3.5 | 0.8 |
| Derek Fisher | 35 | 73 | PG | 105.4 | 13.9 | 105.9 | 0.55 | 9.9 | 40.1 | 34.8 | 85.6 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 2.51 | 23.7 | 40.1 | 1.3 | 7.2 | 0.3 | 2.1 |
| Andrew Bynum | 22 | 84 | C | 117.0 | 20.6 | 102.0 | 2.01 | 17.8 | 57.1 | 0.0 | 73.9 | 5.8 | 14.6 | -3.52 | 37.9 | 0.1 | 10.1 | 20.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 |
| Lamar Odom | 30 | 82 | PF | 109.0 | 17.9 | 100.4 | 2.90 | 12.3 | 51.0 | 31.9 | 69.3 | 15.6 | 16.7 | 1.08 | 27.3 | 24.6 | 8.0 | 26.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Shannon Brown | 24 | 76 | SG | 105.3 | 17.8 | 105.1 | -0.12 | 14.1 | 47.4 | 32.8 | 81.8 | 9.9 | 11.4 | 0.29 | 20.4 | 31.9 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Jordan Farmar | 23 | 74 | PG | 105.3 | 18.2 | 105.9 | -0.99 | 14.4 | 48.3 | 37.6 | 67.1 | 13.4 | 13.9 | 0.86 | 16.5 | 44.5 | 1.1 | 8.8 | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| Luke Walton | 29 | 80 | SF | 96.0 | 17.1 | 105.4 | -1.07 | 9.1 | 34.3 | 41.2 | 50.0 | 21.5 | 13.4 | 5.39 | 4.8 | 20.2 | 5.0 | 10.6 | 0.3 | 1.9 |
| Josh Powell | 27 | 81 | PF | 88.7 | 18.8 | 106.3 | -1.13 | 10.5 | 36.0 | 43.8 | 64.5 | 9.0 | 15.6 | -1.66 | 16.0 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 13.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Adam Morrison | 25 | 80 | SF | 91.6 | 18.0 | 108.0 | -2.36 | 11.0 | 42.2 | 23.8 | 62.5 | 11.3 | 11.9 | 0.83 | 9.4 | 24.7 | 4.7 | 10.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| DJ Mbenga | 29 | 84 | C | 98.6 | 16.1 | 101.3 | 2.71 | 10.6 | 46.6 | 0.0 | 47.4 | 3.4 | 13.6 | -2.72 | 18.4 | 0.0 | 10.2 | 17.2 | 6.2 | 0.7 |
| Sasha Vujacic | 25 | 79 | SG | 112.1 | 15.1 | 105.4 | -0.24 | 11.6 | 49.4 | 30.9 | 84.8 | 10.5 | 10.1 | 1.80 | 20.1 | 49.4 | 4.9 | 10.4 | 0.5 | 1.8 |
5. Utah Jazz
Coach: Jerry Sloan
SRS: 5.33 (3rd of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 93.8 (9th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 110.7 (8th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 105.0 (10th of 30)
How They Got Here:
Won NBA Western Conference First Round (4-2) versus Denver Nuggets
Four Factors:
| Team | eFG% | Rank | TOV% | Rank | ORB% | Rank | FT/FGA | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah Jazz | 0.524 | 4 | 0.142 | 26 | 0.268 | 13 | 0.252 | 4 |
| Utah Jazz - Opp | 0.492 | 13 | 0.142 | 5 | 0.244 | 5 | 0.269 | 30 |
Roster (w/ 2010 Regular-Season Stats):
| Player | Ag | Ht | Ps | ORtg | %P | DRtg | DPA | P36 | 2P% | 3P% | FT% | AR | TR | PR | Fr | 3t | OR% | DR% | Bk% | St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Boozer | 28 | 81 | PF | 112.5 | 24.4 | 101.9 | 1.61 | 20.2 | 56.2 | 0.0 | 74.2 | 15.8 | 16.6 | -1.77 | 35.0 | 0.0 | 8.2 | 29.9 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Deron Williams | 25 | 75 | PG | 115.8 | 26.0 | 107.4 | -0.66 | 18.0 | 50.1 | 37.1 | 80.1 | 44.5 | 17.7 | 9.99 | 39.7 | 24.6 | 2.2 | 10.4 | 0.5 | 1.8 |
| W. Matthews | 23 | 77 | SG | 112.7 | 15.8 | 108.3 | -0.94 | 13.5 | 52.5 | 38.2 | 82.9 | 9.0 | 14.9 | -0.51 | 34.2 | 29.2 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| C.J. Miles | 22 | 78 | SG | 99.9 | 19.4 | 106.6 | -0.45 | 14.8 | 48.4 | 34.1 | 69.5 | 10.7 | 14.3 | -0.73 | 16.9 | 38.6 | 3.4 | 9.7 | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Paul Millsap | 24 | 80 | PF | 113.3 | 18.6 | 103.4 | 2.07 | 14.9 | 54.3 | 11.1 | 69.3 | 8.9 | 14.0 | -1.26 | 36.9 | 1.3 | 9.9 | 18.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| Kyle Korver | 28 | 79 | SF | 116.5 | 15.5 | 107.3 | -0.83 | 14.0 | 46.5 | 53.6 | 79.6 | 13.9 | 14.6 | 1.82 | 17.5 | 39.3 | 1.3 | 12.2 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Kyrylo Fesenko | 23 | 85 | C | 100.3 | 16.2 | 105.3 | 1.55 | 11.2 | 55.3 | 0.0 | 42.1 | 5.3 | 18.6 | -3.43 | 60.0 | 1.1 | 9.8 | 16.1 | 3.7 | 0.8 |
| Ronnie Price | 26 | 74 | PG | 98.4 | 19.0 | 106.0 | -0.24 | 11.3 | 44.7 | 28.6 | 69.5 | 22.0 | 18.7 | 3.23 | 24.4 | 26.0 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 1.3 | 2.5 |
| Kosta Koufos | 20 | 84 | C | 90.7 | 18.4 | 106.2 | -0.69 | 11.0 | 46.8 | 0.0 | 60.0 | 5.1 | 24.2 | -6.40 | 31.9 | 0.0 | 11.3 | 19.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| Mehmet Okur | 30 | 83 | C | 108.9 | 20.4 | 104.5 | 1.13 | 16.4 | 48.6 | 38.5 | 82.0 | 8.5 | 14.9 | -2.22 | 30.8 | 27.5 | 7.5 | 20.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 |
| Othyus Jeffers | 24 | 77 | SG | 98.0 | 26.5 | 103.3 | -0.34 | 18.3 | 41.4 | 0.0 | 68.4 | 2.1 | 16.1 | -7.41 | 65.5 | 0.0 | 13.5 | 17.6 | 0.0 | 2.8 |
| Sundiata Gaines | 23 | 73 | PG | 106.8 | 24.6 | 104.9 | -0.85 | 17.4 | 55.4 | 26.9 | 50.0 | 28.0 | 13.4 | 5.53 | 56.1 | 31.7 | 3.4 | 12.2 | 0.0 | 2.8 |
| A. Kirilenko | 28 | 81 | SF | 117.3 | 17.8 | 103.0 | 1.98 | 14.6 | 55.5 | 29.2 | 74.4 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 1.57 | 48.5 | 18.5 | 5.5 | 12.9 | 3.4 | 2.5 |
Season Series
| Lakers win series 4-0 |
|---|
| Game 1 @ LAL - Lakers 104, Jazz 99 |
| Game 2 @ LAL - Lakers 111, Jazz 103 |
| Game 3 @ UTA - Lakers 111, Jazz 110 |
| Game 4 @ UTA - Lakers 111, Jazz 96 |
| Picks | Most Likely | Second Opinion |
|---|---|---|
| SPM "True Skill" Projection says: | Lakers in 5 | Lakers in 4 |
| SRS says: | Jazz in 6 | Lakers in 7 |
| I say: | Lakers in 7 | Lakers in 6 |
May 2nd, 2010 at 12:08 am
I love the Lakers, but they have been VERY shaky lately. This will be a very interesting series.
May 2nd, 2010 at 8:42 am
Neil, will you come to LA and have sex with me if the Lakers win the title this year?
I'd like to adjust your plus-minus...
Paris <3
May 2nd, 2010 at 12:51 pm
My Adjusted Team Efficiencies, converted to SPM, then converted back based on expected lineups/rosters. If Utah had all of their players, this would be a toss-up.
LAL vs UTA
4 to 0 11.2%
4 to 1 24.1%
4 to 2 17.0%
4 to 3 20.5%
3 to 4 8.6%
2 to 4 11.5%
1 to 4 4.7%
0 to 4 2.4%
Margin
7.49 4.55
LAL UTA
72.8% 27.2%
May 2nd, 2010 at 4:21 pm
Re: "Paris" #2
Yup ... these are my readers.
May 2nd, 2010 at 4:25 pm
Agreed, DSM. That's pretty much the story I saw with SPM and SRS -- full-season SRS actually likes Utah to win to whole thing, but it doesn't know Okur and Kirilenko are out. SPM using last round's minutes thinks L.A. is significantly better. Then again, it thought Denver would beat the undermanned Jazz and L.A. would destroy OKC, so there's a good possibility the series will still be very close.
May 4th, 2010 at 2:21 pm
I typically side with the "let the numbers do the talking and not going with gut feeling" but I think this series is unique. These two teams have faced each other twice already in previous playoffs with essentially the same players. I think the Lakers are just a bad match-up for the Jazz. The combination of Boozer and Millsap play very well against almost every team in the league the but the Lakers are just too big and long.
I think this one goes only 4 or 5 at the most. The Lakers will win the first two at home. They will have 3 days off to rest before game 3 which is huge for an ailing Kobe, Artest, and Bynum so I think they get game 3 as well and go up 3-0 in the series. It will be up to them whether they decide to play hard and close it out in 4 or just go through the motions and close it out at home in game 5.