Playoff Preview: #2 Miami vs. #3 Boston
Posted by Neil Paine on April 29, 2011
Miami Heat
58-24, 1st in NBA Southeast Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Erik Spoelstra (58-24)
PTS/G: 102.1 (8th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 94.6 (6th of 30)
SRS: 6.76 (1st of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.9 (20th of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.7 (3rd of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 103.5 (5th of 30)
Expected W-L: 61-21 (2nd of 30)
Arena: AmericanAirlines Arena ▪ Attendance: 810,930 (4th of 30)
| Pos | Roster | G | Min | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | WS/48 | PER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Mike Bibby | 80 | 2285 | -0.27 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.085 | 10.9 |
| SG | Dwyane Wade | 76 | 2824 | 6.69 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 0.218 | 25.6 |
| SF | LeBron James | 79 | 3063 | 8.75 | 4.2 | 10.2 | 0.244 | 27.3 |
| PF | Chris Bosh | 77 | 2795 | 2.07 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 0.177 | 19.4 |
| C | Zydrunas Ilgauskas | 72 | 1145 | -1.82 | -0.3 | 1.5 | 0.122 | 12.8 |
| PG | Mario Chalmers | 70 | 1578 | 0.87 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.089 | 10.3 |
| SF | James Jones | 81 | 1549 | -0.25 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.145 | 11.1 |
| PF | Joel Anthony | 75 | 1463 | -3.77 | 0.8 | -2.2 | 0.107 | 7.3 |
| SG | Mike Miller | 41 | 838 | -0.79 | -2.6 | -0.9 | 0.090 | 9.7 |
| C | Erick Dampier | 51 | 815 | -3.02 | -0.1 | -0.9 | 0.109 | 9.7 |
| PG | Eddie House | 56 | 978 | -0.68 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.108 | 11.9 |
| PF | Juwan Howard | 57 | 592 | -5.36 | -0.9 | -2.6 | 0.074 | 8.4 |
Boston Celtics
56-26, 1st in NBA Atlantic Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Doc Rivers (56-26)
PTS/G: 96.5 (23rd of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 91.1 (1st of 30)
SRS: 4.83 (6th of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.4 (22nd of 30)
Off Rtg: 106.2 (18th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 100.3 (2nd of 30)
Expected W-L: 57-25 (4th of 30)
Arena: TD Garden ▪ Attendance: 763,584 (11th of 30)
| Pos | Roster | G | Min | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | WS/48 | PER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Rajon Rondo | 68 | 2527 | 3.89 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.126 | 17.1 |
| SG | Ray Allen | 80 | 2890 | 2.29 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 0.166 | 16.4 |
| SF | Paul Pierce | 80 | 2774 | 4.70 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 0.201 | 19.7 |
| PF | Kevin Garnett | 71 | 2220 | 5.06 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 0.194 | 20.6 |
| C | Jermaine O'Neal | 24 | 431 | -5.51 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.065 | 9.2 |
| SF/PF | Jeff Green | 75 | 2427 | -1.14 | -1.9 | -3.5 | 0.095 | 12.9 |
| PF | Glen Davis | 78 | 2298 | -0.73 | -0.6 | -1.1 | 0.102 | 12.8 |
| C | Nenad Krstic | 71 | 1571 | -2.72 | -0.9 | 0.4 | 0.122 | 13.1 |
| SG | Von Wafer | 58 | 552 | -3.36 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.092 | 10.6 |
| PG | Delonte West | 24 | 453 | -1.26 | -3.1 | 1.3 | 0.093 | 12.3 |
| PG | Carlos Arroyo | 64 | 1185 | -4.57 | -0.9 | -1.2 | 0.068 | 9.0 |
| PF/C | Troy Murphy | 35 | 466 | -3.42 | -2.6 | -0.7 | 0.029 | 8.0 |
| SF | Sasha Pavlovic | 31 | 362 | -4.86 | -1.8 | -3.1 | 0.042 | 6.0 |
Predictions (based on these rankings)
| Full-Season | Post-Deadline | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games | MIA | BOS | Prob | Games | MIA | BOS | Prob | |
| 7 | 4 | 3 | 20.5% | 5 | 4 | 1 | 24.6% | |
| 5 | 4 | 1 | 20.1% | 7 | 4 | 3 | 20.0% | |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 15.7% | 6 | 4 | 2 | 17.5% | |
| 6 | 2 | 4 | 14.3% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 12.1% | |
| 7 | 3 | 4 | 10.5% | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10.7% | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | 8.7% | 7 | 3 | 4 | 8.4% | |
| 5 | 1 | 4 | 6.6% | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4.4% | |
| 4 | 0 | 4 | 3.5% | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2.2% | |
| MIA | 65.1% | MIA | 74.2% | |||||
| BOS | 34.9% | BOS | 25.8% | |||||
(2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann)
April 29th, 2011 at 12:25 pm
I think you forgot Mario Chalmers. Maybe it will change this series, but Dampier hasn't started in a while.
April 29th, 2011 at 12:26 pm
Good catch, I'll fix that. I was pulling everything from these depth charts:
http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/depthchart?gameId=2011050114
April 29th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
Wow. Jeff Green's 4yAPM is worse than Pavlovic's. I know some of that is one of them playing with a bunch of rooks and one riding LeBron to wins, but still. Ugly.
Starting to think that whole line about Boston getting the best talent in the trade might have been a little off.
April 29th, 2011 at 7:12 pm
Where did you hear that line? If you don't consider points per game as the end all, then it was quite clear who came out on top of that trade.
April 30th, 2011 at 9:21 am
So many fun matchups. Miami fans better hope Wade is able to stay with Allen. Wade sure has a rather pedestrian defensive rating but I don't know what it is that makes him an average defender. If I'm Boston I let Wade and LeBron do whatever and shut down everyone else. Bosh VS Garnett is probably a key matchup. The benches look pretty bad compared to OKC/LAL/CHI. I'd guess that the team wins whose bench is at least contributing *something*
April 30th, 2011 at 11:35 am
Bob Ryan and Peter May both said Green was the better player, because he scored more. I think they were in denial. I was disappointed in Ryan, who I expected to know better....
PS Miami has yet to prove they can execute down the stretch against a good team. Celts in 6
April 30th, 2011 at 11:14 pm
Right AYC, except for when they have executed down the stretch against good teams, from mid march on?
If James is healthier than last season, and with Mike Miller finally benched those close losses turn Miami's way. I'd keep a short leash on Z or Bibby if they play as awful as they did against Philly.
May 7th, 2011 at 10:54 am
The Celts just need some home cooking. Additionally, Shaq can help the team, even if all he does is clog the middle and force Miami into jumpshots; hopefully Z does not draw him 15 feet away from the basket all night.
The Celts still have a chance to win the series; they have the next two games at home and Miami is fully capable of 35% shooting night or a meltdown. I hope this series goes to game 7; it will feel like the NBA Finals.
http://theresastatforthat.blogspot.com/2011/05/is-boston-really-in-trouble.html