Layups: Derrick Rose, Plus/Minus MVP?
Posted by Neil Paine on January 25, 2011
In the absence of a runaway choice, there's an ever-growing push among traditional media members in favor of Derrick Rose's MVP candidacy -- and to be totally honest, the advanced boxscore-based stats don't see it. Rose is having a tremendous season, without a doubt, but he's currently 9th in Win Shares, 17th in WS per 48 minutes, 14th in Player Efficiency Rating, and 14th in Statistical +/-... Not exactly the most impressive MVP resume from the stathead's perspective.
However, there is one advanced metric that does validate the love for Rose: Adjusted Plus/Minus (via BasketballValue.com). Sure, the standard errors are huge, and Mike Dunleavy Jr. shows up as the 2nd-best player behind Rose (yikes!). But at least there is some numerical evidence that Rose is making Chicago better in ways that aren't being detected in his box score numbers.
January 26th, 2011 at 6:57 pm
"Overr analyzing things like this is the reason why Kobe only has 1 MVP while Steve Nash has two."
Actually, that's not true at all. The reason nash won those 2 MVPs was due to your main argument for rose. The suns success completely hinged on nash's play. When he missed a game, they basically had no chance out there. So, in effect, he was the "most valuable player", and had the (some of the) stats to back it up.
January 26th, 2011 at 7:57 pm
Yeah, Poohdini's final paragraph is unintentionally hilarious because in 2006, the stat support was much, much stronger for Kobe Bryant than it was for Steve Nash. Nash's two MVPs are still considered by "stat geeks" to be among the most controversial MVP selections ever.
January 29th, 2011 at 4:09 pm
NBA has an interesting article proposing a new award that better fits Rose's performance: Offensive Player of the Year.
January 30th, 2011 at 2:50 pm
What does it say about the MVP's pro-offense bias that we have a DPOY but not an Offensive Player of the Year Award? It's almost like the MVP is assumed to be basically the OPOY, when it should be a reward for all-around impact.
March 31st, 2011 at 11:05 pm
Paul Pierce crushes Howard or James in adjusted +/-. Where's the cry for him to be MVP?
April 5th, 2011 at 11:39 am
If only there were some way we could figure out by talking to actual people if a player busted his butt all summer, comes to every game with a winning attitude and is money in crunch time. We could then combine that with some sort of "Win-Loss" stat to see if that has had an impact and then make a decision.