More Fun with Statistical +/-
Posted by Neil Paine on February 27, 2009
The other day, I talked at some length about "statistical plus/minus," which is just a regression of pure adjusted +/- on the conventional boxscore stats. In that post, I looked into the possibility of predicting the following season using a weighted average of the 3 previous seasons' SPM scores, but I realize that I sort of skimmed over the statistical +/- metric itself -- what are its strengths and weaknesses? What kind of players does it overrate and underrate?
In an effort to better understand the metric and answer these questions, I calculated the career leaders in SPM (combined NBA + ABA, minimum 15,000 career MP) through last Saturday's games. Here's the list:
Player Pos G Min SPM ---------------+--+----------+--------+------ michaeljordan G 1072 41013 12.85 wiltchamberlain C 1045 47859 11.59 davidrobinson C 987 34272 10.79 lebronjames F 444 18083 10.00 charlesbarkley F 1073 39330 9.03 k.abdul-jabbar C 1560 57446 9.01 magicjohnson G 906 33245 8.82 larrybird F 897 34443 8.81 juliuserving F 1243 45227 8.57 shaquilleo'neal C 1089 39103 8.21 bobpettit F 792 30690 7.87 clydedrexler G 1086 37537 7.79 oscarrobertson G 1040 43886 7.75 hakeemolajuwon C 1238 44222 7.70 elginbaylor F 846 33863 7.59 karlmalone F 1476 54852 7.50 andreikirilenko F 533 16671 7.37 timduncan F 877 32481 7.30 tracymcgrady F 784 27463 7.12 kevingarnett F 1051 39570 6.91 boblanier C 959 32103 6.24 kobebryant G 921 33584 6.22 jerrywest G 932 36571 6.17 bobbyjones F 941 25728 6.16 conniehawkins F 616 22232 6.08 dirknowitzki F 812 29663 5.97 neiljohnston C 516 18298 5.94 vincecarter G 752 28333 5.88 billrussell C 963 40726 5.85 larrynance F 920 30697 5.74 dolphschayes F 866 29800 5.65 johnstockton G 1504 47764 5.63 rickbarry F 1020 38153 5.56 waltfrazier G 825 30965 5.45 paulpierce F 788 29570 5.30 artisgilmore C 1329 47150 5.16 docrivers G 864 23567 5.16 alvinrobertson G 779 24669 5.13 d.wilkins F 1074 38113 5.10 billycunningham F 770 26844 5.09 scottiepippen F 1178 41069 4.97 booutlaw F 914 20750 4.91 eltonbrand F 643 24421 4.87 gilbertarenas G 431 16115 4.80 waltbellamy C 1043 38940 4.72 chriswebber F 831 30847 4.71 marquesjohnson F 691 23694 4.65 sidneymoncrief G 767 23150 4.60 rogerbrown F 605 21454 4.57 wesunseld C 984 35832 4.56 adriandantley F 955 34151 4.55 natemcmillan G 796 20462 4.53 jerrylucas F 829 32131 4.43 larryjones G 551 18956 4.43 fatlever G 752 23814 4.33 granthill F 759 27209 4.27 georgemcginnis F 842 28179 4.26 shawnmarion F 720 27136 4.23 m.r.richardson G 556 18589 4.22 eddiejones F 954 32777 4.21 barondavis G 649 22998 4.17 alleniverson G 880 36589 4.10 jasonkidd G 1081 40211 4.10 paugasol F 557 19806 4.10 alvanadams C 988 27203 4.04 johndrew F 739 21828 3.97 georgegervin G 1060 35597 3.87 cliffhagan F 839 24074 3.84 danissel C 1218 41784 3.82 harrygallatin F 496 15813 3.81 stevefrancis G 576 21632 3.79 patrickewing C 1183 40594 3.79 edmacauley C 506 18071 3.75 chaunceybillups G 810 25891 3.73 baileyhowell F 951 30627 3.70 benwallace C 897 27787 3.66 rayallen G 919 34244 3.65 reggiemiller G 1389 47621 3.61 brentbarry G 893 23447 3.61 vladedivac C 1134 33838 3.53 shanebattier F 591 19740 3.48 ronartest G 577 20024 3.45 garypayton G 1335 47117 3.44 mookieblaylock G 889 31026 3.34 bobmcadoo C 852 28327 3.32 cedricmaxwell F 835 23769 3.31 marcuscamby C 738 22742 3.30 jeffhornacek G 1077 33964 3.28 johnsalley F 748 16524 3.28 chrismullin F 986 32163 3.22 clydelovellette C 704 19075 3.20 markaguirre F 923 27730 3.18 mauricecheeks G 1101 34845 3.16 kevinmchale F 971 30118 3.10 kevinjohnson G 735 25061 3.10 jacksikma C 1107 36943 3.04 bradmiller C 684 20685 3.01 cliffordray C 784 19940 2.99 davidthompson G 592 19406 2.98 warrenjabali G 447 15264 2.98 alonzomourning C 838 25976 2.94 paulpressey G 724 19659 2.93 chrisbosh F 414 15341 2.91 georgeyardley F 472 15767 2.91 johnhavlicek F 1270 46471 2.90 vernmikkelsen F 567 18443 2.88 richkelley C 814 17711 2.88 williewise F 552 18438 2.87 davecowens C 766 29565 2.86 herseyhawkins G 983 32034 2.76 tomgola G 698 22529 2.76 jimeakins C 767 19013 2.73 pennyhardaway G 704 23713 2.70 danmajerle G 955 30206 2.69 richieguerin G 847 27447 2.69 treerollins C 1156 24028 2.68 footswalker G 658 15036 2.67 donbuse G 966 26180 2.65 worldb.free G 886 26893 2.64 terrellbrandon G 724 21545 2.63 braddaugherty C 548 20029 2.63 larryfoust C 677 19926 2.63 jimmyjones G 686 23463 2.60 raywilliams G 655 18462 2.60 detlefschrempf F 1136 33597 2.59 bernardking F 874 29417 2.57 guswilliams G 825 25645 2.54 timhardaway G 867 30626 2.54 ronharper G 1009 31199 2.54 samjones G 872 24285 2.53 tomheinsohn F 654 19254 2.53 tonikukoc F 846 22212 2.49 terryporter G 1274 35354 2.48 rasheedwallace F 992 33685 2.48 danroundfield F 813 24210 2.48 donniefreeman G 648 21026 2.45 d.armstrong G 840 19915 2.45 hotrodwilliams F 887 26327 2.44 roberthorry F 1107 27066 2.44 isiahthomas G 979 35516 2.44 rashardlewis F 752 25981 2.38 paularizin F 648 24897 2.36 lamarodom F 639 23423 2.35 lennywilkens G 1077 38064 2.33 michaelredd G 550 18707 2.31 samlacey C 1002 31873 2.28 briantaylor G 601 19149 2.26 mickeyjohnson F 904 25005 2.24 andremiller G 787 27421 2.23 michaeladams G 653 20446 2.22 bobdandridge F 839 29502 2.22 jeromekersey F 1153 28115 2.20 jasonterry G 776 26350 2.20 willisreed C 650 23073 2.18 dikembemutombo C 1191 36715 2.18 dougchristie G 827 26080 2.16 dickmcguire G 606 17170 2.13 dannymanning F 883 24202 2.13 zelmobeaty C 889 29676 2.12 kerrykittles G 507 16929 2.11 normvanlier G 746 26171 2.08 rodstrickland G 1094 33633 2.08 alexenglish F 1193 38063 2.07 c.laettner F 868 25764 2.05 shawnkemp F 1051 29295 1.98 natethurmond C 964 35875 1.95 georget.johnson C 904 18102 1.94 bobcousy G 855 30167 1.92 larryd.johnson F 707 25685 1.91 chetwalker F 1032 33433 1.90 derekharper G 1199 37786 1.88 nickanderson F 800 24922 1.86 carmeloanthony F 419 15190 1.86 terrycummings F 1183 33898 1.85 jamesposey F 717 20099 1.84 chrismorris F 747 18748 1.84 billbridges F 926 30878 1.83 billlaimbeer C 1068 33956 1.83 horacegrant F 1165 38621 1.80 derrickmckey F 937 27229 1.76 samcassell G 993 29811 1.76 mosesmalone C 1455 49444 1.75 markprice G 722 21560 1.74 terrydischinger F 652 17841 1.74 stevemix F 788 18831 1.74 derrickcoleman F 781 25903 1.69 jasonrichardson G 564 20218 1.69 redrobbins F 586 18745 1.65 reggiewilliams F 599 16013 1.65 jamesworthy F 926 30001 1.65 larrycostello G 706 21198 1.64 stevesmith G 942 28856 1.60 jackcoleman F 498 16479 1.60 jacktwyman F 823 26147 1.59 michaelcooper G 873 23635 1.57 davebing G 901 32769 1.56 sidneywicks F 760 25762 1.55 elvinhayes F 1303 50000 1.54 gregballard F 802 22073 1.54 paulwestphal G 823 20947 1.53 kennyanderson G 858 25868 1.52 s.abdur-rahim F 830 28878 1.52 rodneymccray F 768 24876 1.49 hedoturkoglu F 654 18074 1.49 coreymaggette F 626 18361 1.49 anthonymason F 882 30606 1.48 stephonmarbury G 823 31471 1.47 caronbutler F 470 17106 1.45 r.jefferson F 547 19586 1.41 jermaineo'neal F 767 21712 1.41 theoratliff F 731 19337 1.40 markeaton C 875 25169 1.40 derekanderson G 615 17974 1.39 darrellwalker G 720 18601 1.35 bryonrussell F 841 19804 1.30 dannyainge G 1042 27755 1.29 m.l.carr F 678 16390 1.27 c.robinson F 1380 42561 1.27 redkerr C 905 27783 1.23 samperkins F 1286 36598 1.23 mackcalvin G 755 21593 1.22 shawnbradley C 832 19531 1.22 frankramsey F 623 15330 1.21 charlessmith F 564 16378 1.21 deebrown G 608 16843 1.19 gusjohnson F 632 20893 1.19 billypaultz C 1124 30392 1.19 markjackson G 1296 39121 1.18 mitchrichmond G 976 34309 1.17 stevenash G 909 28168 1.17 z.ilgauskas C 679 19718 1.15 bobsura G 657 15596 1.14 spencerhaywood F 844 29408 1.13 marioelie G 732 18654 1.13 dennisjohnson G 1100 35954 1.13 greganthony G 757 15850 1.11 davedebusschere F 875 31202 1.11 johnnygreen F 1057 24624 1.11 brevinknight G 703 17914 1.10 donnelson F 1053 21685 1.08 wAl Williams F 708 18818 1.08 campyrussell F 566 16781 1.07 daverobisch C 930 22780 1.07 tomowens C 877 20836 1.06 cobydietrick C 842 16287 1.04 rubenpatterson F 649 15956 1.03 robertparish C 1611 45704 1.03 pejastojakovic F 696 23947 1.03 p.j.brown F 1089 33823 1.01 aaronmckie G 793 19156 1.00 melhutchins F 437 16574 0.98 edpinckney F 793 15698 0.98 jamessilas G 685 20363 0.92 jeffmullins G 804 24574 0.90 freddielewis G 750 24924 0.90 petemaravich G 658 24316 0.89 billsharman G 680 21793 0.89 johnstarks G 866 23514 0.88 grantlong F 1003 28514 0.86 meldaniels C 639 22466 0.82 rudylarusso F 736 24487 0.82 halgreer G 1122 39788 0.82 kenyonmartin F 531 17320 0.81 lonnieshelton F 673 18530 0.81 donyellmarshall F 944 24925 0.80 walterdavis G 1033 28859 0.80 tomgugliotta F 763 23556 0.79 vinniejohnson G 984 24308 0.79 tayshaunprince F 505 16741 0.77 calvinnatt F 599 18818 0.77 jimfox C 743 17294 0.77 calvinmurphy G 1002 30607 0.77 fredbrown G 963 24422 0.76 purvisshort F 842 24549 0.75 raferalston G 591 17142 0.74 kentbenson C 680 15719 0.74 rickfox G 930 23723 0.74 mikegale G 842 20645 0.74 rodneyrogers F 866 21873 0.71 jerrysloan G 755 25750 0.70 elmoresmith C 562 17879 0.69 kendallgill G 966 29481 0.67 mikemiller F 610 19644 0.66 archieclark G 725 23581 0.65 c.powell F 599 18636 0.64 daledavis F 1094 29607 0.62 benpoquette F 718 15763 0.62 earlmonroe G 926 29636 0.61 vernfleming G 893 24721 0.61 louhudson F 890 29794 0.61 craigehlo G 873 21071 0.60 otisthorpe F 1257 39822 0.55 trenttucker G 756 15671 0.54 mikebibby G 777 28077 0.53 otisbirdsong G 696 21627 0.51 rickypierce F 969 23665 0.51 rodhiggins F 779 17189 0.50 eldencampbell F 1044 25775 0.50 happyhairston F 776 24330 0.49 michaelfinley G 1029 36435 0.48 tomchambers F 1107 33922 0.48 robertreid F 919 25109 0.46 tonyparker G 584 19369 0.45 muggsybogues G 889 25429 0.45 clifflevingston F 830 16962 0.44 davidwesley G 949 30272 0.43 t.r.dunn G 993 23080 0.41 glenrice F 1000 34985 0.41 braddavis G 961 22302 0.40 larryhughes G 648 20452 0.39 randysmith G 976 31444 0.38 jamalmashburn F 611 22762 0.37 byronbeck C 747 19197 0.35 riksmits C 867 23100 0.34 rudytomjanovich F 768 25714 0.33 tinyarchibald G 876 31159 0.32 paulsilas F 1254 34989 0.32 byronscott G 1073 30153 0.31 darryldawkins C 726 17235 0.30 o.woolridge F 851 24041 0.30 quinnbuckner G 719 16245 0.29 stevehawes C 688 15831 0.28 morrispeterson F 646 18219 0.28 antoniomcdyess F 837 24081 0.26 jimbrewer F 703 15936 0.25 kellytripucka F 707 20959 0.24 rayscott F 811 23709 0.23 ericsnow G 846 23132 0.23 charliescott G 717 25524 0.21 kurtrambis F 880 16299 0.20 latrellsprewell G 913 35269 0.20 reggietheus G 1026 34603 0.20 jayhumphries G 788 23062 0.19 terrytyler F 871 21740 0.18 billyknight G 821 23746 0.17 travisbest G 708 15150 0.16 fattytaylor G 640 17706 0.13 tyronecorbin G 1065 27657 0.13 bonziwells G 591 15133 0.12 darrallimhoff C 801 17894 0.12 danabarros G 850 19480 0.12 chrisford G 794 22043 0.11 wiljones F 725 21931 0.11 wallyszczerbiak F 627 19594 0.10 antoinewalker F 893 31531 0.09 mychalthompson C 935 27764 0.08 carlbraun G 617 18409 0.07 antawnjamison F 773 28418 0.05 dickvanarsdale G 921 31771 0.05 joecaldwell F 782 25261 0.02 joejohnson G 597 21884 0.01 jimcleamons G 652 16994 0.00 jerrystackhouse G 854 28502 -0.01 johnlucas G 928 25556 -0.03 sleepyfloyd G 957 26383 -0.07 billyowens F 600 17619 -0.08 brucebowen F 847 23634 -0.08 donchaney G 790 18881 -0.09 cuttinomobley G 747 27618 -0.10 georgelynch F 774 17682 -0.12 stephenjackson F 586 18984 -0.12 richardhamilton G 720 23937 -0.13 markolberding F 946 23692 -0.15 chrismills F 568 17282 -0.15 philchenier G 578 19116 -0.16 jalenrose G 923 27926 -0.16 buckwilliams F 1307 42464 -0.16 antoinecarr F 987 19780 -0.17 bobbyjackson G 737 16317 -0.18 davegreenwood F 823 23370 -0.18 wesleyperson G 733 20727 -0.19 jackmarin F 849 24590 -0.19 bobboozer F 874 25549 -0.19 jamaalwilkes F 828 27275 -0.19 seanelliott F 742 24502 -0.21 joedumars G 1018 35139 -0.22 xaviermcdaniel F 870 25201 -0.23 willieanderson G 555 15974 -0.24 jonkoncak C 784 16409 -0.24 dennisrodman F 911 28839 -0.24 mikebantom F 706 19725 -0.25 jamalcrawford G 582 18847 -0.26 michaelcage F 1140 29716 -0.26 billhanzlik G 748 15534 -0.28 c.weatherspoon F 915 27735 -0.28 staceyaugmon G 1001 21659 -0.29 k.c.jones G 676 17501 -0.30 frankbrickowski F 731 16278 -0.30 damonstoudamire G 878 29106 -0.30 mikenewlin G 837 24574 -0.30 mauricelucas F 1021 30112 -0.31 laphonsoellis F 624 17616 -0.31 luciusallen G 702 20159 -0.33 louiedampier G 960 32201 -0.34 mikewoodson G 786 20021 -0.37 spudwebb G 814 20288 -0.37 kikivandeweghe F 810 24521 -0.38 gailgoodrich G 1031 33527 -0.38 lindseyhunter G 919 23103 -0.41 stulantz G 547 15267 -0.41 ronboone G 1041 32391 -0.44 vinbaker F 791 25737 -0.44 richjones F 508 16991 -0.45 charlesoakley F 1282 40280 -0.45 antoniodaniels G 839 19385 -0.45 clemhaskins G 681 17624 -0.46 glencombs G 465 15275 -0.46 bryantstith G 586 16417 -0.47 dicksnyder G 964 25676 -0.47 jimpaxsonjr. G 784 21357 -0.48 dellcurry G 1083 23549 -0.49 scottwedman F 906 25927 -0.49 johnjohnson F 869 25681 -0.51 rajabell G 577 15965 -0.51 philsmith G 659 19166 -0.52 ervinjohnson C 845 16988 -0.53 voshonlenard G 565 15350 -0.53 dennisscott G 629 17983 -0.53 kurtthomas F 868 23166 -0.54 geneshue G 699 23338 -0.55 caldwelljones C 1299 35081 -0.56 bobnetolicky F 618 20554 -0.56 allenleavell G 700 16248 -0.56 jimbarnett G 732 17410 -0.59 rashonesterovic C 749 17316 -0.60 willienaulls F 716 20620 -0.61 joebarrycarroll C 705 22838 -0.61 daleellis G 1209 34778 -0.62 rolandoblackman G 980 32087 -0.65 glennrobinson F 688 25346 -0.66 sedalethreatt G 951 22436 -0.66 terrymills F 678 16422 -0.67 briangrant F 756 21417 -0.67 wayneembry C 831 21763 -0.69 royhinson F 507 15543 -0.73 darnellhillman F 682 17609 -0.73 eddiea.johnson F 1199 32604 -0.76 ralphsimpson G 705 19623 -0.76 rickeygreen G 946 23271 -0.76 keithvanhorn F 575 18150 -0.78 donkojis F 814 19241 -0.79 mattharpring F 644 17394 -0.79 jimmcmillian F 631 20227 -0.80 derekfisher G 919 23979 -0.85 georgemccloud G 766 17417 -0.86 slatermartin G 544 19488 -0.87 erickdampier C 841 21291 -0.87 alattles G 711 17826 -0.89 vinnydelnegro G 771 19211 -0.91 ottomoore C 682 16893 -0.93 dannyschayes C 1138 21975 -0.96 rickmahorn C 1117 25779 -0.97 altonlister C 953 18965 -0.97 timthomas F 788 20796 -0.97 tommeschery F 778 23459 -0.98 scottskiles G 600 16789 -0.99 mikeriordan G 639 15890 -1.00 troymurphy F 528 15155 -1.01 eddiejohnson G 675 19975 -1.04 poohrichardson G 639 19399 -1.04 jojowhite G 837 29941 -1.04 cliffrobinson F 629 19284 -1.05 garheard F 787 19571 -1.06 rickydavis G 695 21332 -1.06 stevekerr G 910 16206 -1.07 harveygrant F 783 20510 -1.08 a.c.green F 1278 36552 -1.08 shermandouglas G 765 21148 -1.08 jasonwilliams G 679 21189 -1.09 juniorbridgeman F 849 21257 -1.10 joesmith F 929 25949 -1.11 johnnynewman F 1159 28435 -1.14 cazzierussell F 817 22213 -1.14 blueedwards G 704 18409 -1.15 lasallethompson C 985 21238 -1.15 chuckwilliams G 638 17894 -1.17 geraldgovan F 681 22925 -1.18 philhubbard F 665 15863 -1.18 m.abdul-rahman G 724 19202 -1.19 billmelchionni G 646 16787 -1.19 allanhouston G 839 28311 -1.19 nickvanexel G 880 28969 -1.20 mikegminski C 938 24058 -1.22 anthonypeeler G 827 20463 -1.24 billcartwright C 963 27491 -1.24 chuckperson F 943 28941 -1.27 hermgilliam G 578 15026 -1.27 herbwilliams C 1102 28484 -1.28 bimbocoles G 852 20319 -1.28 jamesedwards C 1168 28356 -1.30 antoniodavis F 903 26083 -1.34 kennorman F 646 18992 -1.38 georgecarter F 479 16234 -1.41 larrysmith F 883 22879 -1.41 shandonanderson F 719 15946 -1.42 benoitbenjamin C 807 21911 -1.45 dickbarnett G 971 28937 -1.46 dannyferry F 917 18130 -1.46 geraldhenderson G 871 18856 -1.49 andrewlang C 737 15344 -1.51 jimjackson G 885 29067 -1.51 tomsanders F 916 22164 -1.52 austincarr G 682 19660 -1.53 vernonmaxwell G 855 24309 -1.54 boblove F 789 25120 -1.55 larrykenon F 752 24510 -1.57 rickysobers G 821 22992 -1.57 waynehightower F 565 15474 -1.58 juwanhoward F 1029 34094 -1.59 keitherickson F 766 18841 -1.59 billbradley F 742 22799 -1.59 rayfelix C 637 15188 -1.60 joegraboski F 705 22197 -1.62 jackgeorge G 506 15860 -1.62 curtisrowe F 590 18277 -1.62 kennythomas F 606 16993 -1.65 kevinporter G 659 19107 -1.66 jayvincent F 576 15556 -1.67 jimwashington F 774 22668 -1.68 davecorzine C 891 20772 -1.69 jamesdonaldson C 957 26222 -1.69 brianwinters G 650 19938 -1.70 swennater C 722 20746 -1.72 alharrington F 701 20816 -1.72 leroyellis C 1048 27520 -1.73 chuckyatkins G 646 16449 -1.74 bingosmith F 865 22407 -1.77 rexchapman G 666 19542 -1.77 kennysmith G 737 22213 -1.78 mattguokas G 735 16603 -1.81 tonycampbell F 690 15180 -1.83 jimchones C 788 23665 -1.84 conniedierking C 706 15474 -1.85 kevinedwards G 604 15332 -1.88 luciousharris G 800 15701 -1.89 markwest C 1090 20213 -1.89 tonybattie C 732 16426 -1.90 jimmywalker G 698 23590 -1.91 ericwilliams F 658 15732 -1.91 bobweiss G 783 17277 -1.93 guyrodgers G 892 28661 -1.94 averyjohnson G 1054 26615 -1.95 fredcarter G 611 18328 -1.98 darrellgriffith G 765 21403 -1.99 tomhenderson G 650 17690 -1.99 geraldwilkins G 900 26084 -2.00 armongilliam F 929 26421 -2.08 isaiahrider G 563 17851 -2.11 ronyseikaly C 678 21395 -2.12 lamondmurray F 736 18477 -2.12 thurlbailey F 928 24873 -2.12 waynecooper C 984 20274 -2.14 dwightjones F 766 16452 -2.18 sammitchell F 994 22256 -2.18 kevingrevey G 672 15246 -2.19 tomvanarsdale F 929 28682 -2.19 b.j.armstrong G 747 17790 -2.19 truckrobinson F 772 25141 -2.19 normnixon G 768 27250 -2.21 stevejones G 704 21028 -2.23 tyronehill C 801 22388 -2.23 jonmcglocklin G 792 20930 -2.24 waymantisdale F 840 23868 -2.26 kevinloughery G 755 22308 -2.26 mikemitchell F 759 24537 -2.28 howardeisley G 786 16011 -2.29 kennycarr F 674 17167 -2.33 henrybibby G 675 15475 -2.34 brianshaw G 942 21665 -2.35 dougwest G 676 16649 -2.39 jeffmcinnis G 576 15926 -2.43 eddiemiles G 605 15681 -2.44 rorysparrow G 836 22550 -2.49 clydelee F 742 19885 -2.50 johnnydavis G 750 21200 -2.53 johnbagley G 665 17120 -2.55 c.williamson F 822 18749 -2.62 lorenzenwright F 776 18498 -2.63 geoffpetrie G 446 16787 -2.63 m.abdul-rauf G 586 15628 -2.64 lionelhollins G 673 18453 -2.65 ronanderson F 664 15112 -2.73 johnlong G 893 22680 -2.78 stewjohnson F 647 19201 -2.79 calbertcheaney F 825 22008 -2.79 hubertdavis G 685 15143 -2.85 craighodges G 695 15077 -2.88 desmondmason F 638 19570 -2.89 chrisdudley C 886 16321 -2.94 johnwilliamson G 516 15540 -2.94 j.r.reid F 672 15370 -3.01 larrydrew G 714 18370 -3.20 donohl G 727 22414 -3.21 jeffmalone G 905 29660 -3.22 loyvaught F 689 16993 -3.34 tomhawkins F 764 18465 -3.37 johnpaxson G 772 17257 -3.44 oldenpolynice C 1058 24884 -3.46 adriansmith G 772 19010 -3.50 kevinwillis F 1424 38364 -4.18 howardkomives G 742 20211 -4.66 walijones G 678 15759 -5.00 kevinduckworth C 684 17462 -5.83 ---------------+--+----------+--------+------
(Note that for pre-1978 players I have estimated TOV, BLK, STL, & ORB.)
So, what jumps out immediately? David Robinson 3rd all-time, right? D-Rob had some beastly seasons in the mid-1990s, but this metric clearly favors stat-stuffers who put up good numbers in multiple categories (Kirilenko!!). That one-dimensional huge scorers like Bernard King don't score as highly as players like The Admiral, who scored a bunch but also did a ton of other things, speaks to this stat's emphasis on versatility.
Another weird item of note in the list above is the presence of unselfish, "hustle"-type role players like Bobby Jones and Charles "Bo" Outlaw ahead of high-scoring superstars like Allen Iverson and George Gervin... Is this a glitch? Maybe so. But perhaps even the glitches can tell us something -- for instance, I've always felt that Jones and Outlaw were criminally underrated players; they always worked hard, did what their coaches asked of them, played tough D, and provided leadership in the locker room. Now, if we were talking baseball and I made these statements about, say, David Eckstein, I'd get fisked to death by the likes of Fire Joe Morgan... But this is another example of how basketball stats aren't the same as baseball stats. Simply put, teamwork matters, and there are a ton of "little things" that can't be picked up out of the boxscore at first glance. And I'm quite sure that the contributions of Jones and Outlaw go well beyond their PPG/RPG/APG averages.
That's not to say this list is anything close to a definitive ranking of players. But I do think that certain players who initially appear "overrated" by this metric deserve a second look, because they may have been doing something important on the court and we need to dig deeper to find out what that may have been. On the flip side, players who don't score as well as you might expect are probably deficient in said "little things". And remember, there's a reason coaches harp on those little things all the time, because they're often the glue that holds together winning teams.
Anyway, I thought the career rankings would be a good conversation-starter, at the very least ("OMG, Kobe ranks behind Bob Lanier!!!")... So have at it -- who do you think this metric is overvaluing? Undervaluing?
February 27th, 2009 at 8:16 am
the big surprise for me is tracy mcgrady ranking before kobe...
February 27th, 2009 at 11:09 am
Hey, it's your lucky day. I am socked in by blizzard conditions, with nothing better to do.
The guy who appears to be most overrated is Nate McMillan, or John Salley, or Bobby Jones.
Most underrated : Kevin Willis, then Duckworth.
I think Statistical +/- doesn't consider the defensive strength of the team, but tries to make up for that with high weights on individual D-stats (Blk and Stl)? How else to explain Kirilenko over Duncan and Garnett? Or this sequence:
5.16 Doc Rivers
5.13 Alvin Robertson
5.10 Dominique Wilkins
5.09 Billy Cunningham
4.97 Scottie Pippen
4.87 Elton Brand
Or Mr Salley's neighborhood:
3.28 John Salley
3.22 Chris Mullin
3.20 Clyde Lovellette
3.18 Mark Aguirre
3.16 Maurice Cheeks
3.10 Kevin McHale
3.10 Kevin Johnson
3.04 Jack Sikma
Big Shot Rob among Hall-of-Famers:
2.44 Isiah Thomas
2.44 Robert Horry
2.44 HotRod Williams
2.38 Rashard Lewis
2.36 Paul Arizin
2.35 Lamar Odom
2.33 Lenny Wilkens
...
2.18 Dikembe Mutombo
2.18 Willis Reed
2.16 Doug Christie
2.13 Danny Manning
2.12 Zelmo Beaty
...
1.76 Derrick McKey
1.75 Moses Malone
1.74 Mark Price
...
1.57 Michael Cooper
1.56 Dave Bing
1.55 Sidney Wicks
1.54 Elvin Hayes
...
1.13 Spencer Haywood
1.13 Mario Elie
1.11 Dave DeBusschere
...
All the early-ABA guys are overrated, but that's another can o'worms.
March 3rd, 2009 at 2:45 pm
OMG LeBron is head and shoulders above everyone else of his generation. Wait that's not surprising at all.
April 22nd, 2009 at 11:58 pm
Neil Paine...Question:
1) You Think You Could Make An All-Time Statistical +/- for Every Player for the Play-Offs
and
2) A All-Time Statistical +/- for a Player comparing "His Teamates Statistical +/-s" and how much Impact that Player had v.s his Teamates.
That would be asoume....
Greetings
May 15th, 2009 at 1:13 am
I'm confused. How did you manage to get a plus/minus stat for West, Wilt, Russell etc. What did u regress against what ?
And as a litmus test, any measure that rates Wilt 2nd and Bill Russell 29th has to be viewed suspiciously.
May 15th, 2009 at 4:38 am
I estimated their blocks/steals/turnovers/etc. from the rest of the stat line using an OLS regression formula from post-1978 players.
And look, I'm actually pretty happy Russell ranks that high (PER ranks him 89th all-time!!). It's sort of remarkable considering that the "intangible" things he did best aren't even picked up in today's boxscore, much less an incomplete, roughly-estimated version from almost 50 years ago (we have to estimate his blocks, for goodness' sake!). Basically, all the stuff Wilt excelled at was tracked back then; the stuff Russell excelled at wasn't.
Besides, I think the gap between the 2 as players has been overstated as the years have piled on (and I say this as a lifelong Celtics fan, btw). It's sort of like the thinking that causes Terry Bradshaw to be considered better than somebody like Fran Tarkenton because of a disparity in championships. I'm not necessarily saying Chamberlain was that much better, or even better at all, but you have to respect both players for their accomplishments and try to avoid the mythmaking that's been built up over the ensuing half-century.
May 15th, 2009 at 5:10 pm
Thanks Neil,
One last question. Doesn't the model suffer from Omitted Variable Bias, (as does any basketball regression) since there is no proxy for individual defense. In that case, how can we take this as a reliable metric, if the model is misspecified.
And, how about using team defense as a proxy (albeit a very weak one) for individual defense.
I apologize if it appears I am questioning the validity of the model, I just don't get how you can run a reliable regression if one of the most important variables is missing. I can't imagine you'd get an R-squared above .65 without some sort of a proxy for defense.
January 25th, 2010 at 5:44 pm
I think the rating needs to take into account who they are playing with when they are on the court, instead of just who is on the team with them. Because now, if you took a good player on the bench as the 6th man, and put him in when the majority of starters arn't, the team will still be doing poorly when he is in and well when he is not.
November 17th, 2010 at 8:11 am
you cany make up stats that didnt exitss then goods work thoug