13 Responses to “Mailbag: The 8 Teams That Came Back From a 3-1 Deficit”

1. Chad Says:
   May 25th, 2011 at 12:04 pm

   So if it is 8/200 overall, how many of those teams had homecourt to start the series? Looks like 6 of the winners, but how many losers? Seems like it would probably only be 50 or 60. Which makes the Bulls chances not look so bad.

2. Neil Paine Says:
   May 25th, 2011 at 1:25 pm

   Arbitrarily excluding the BAA (which had 4 3-1 deficits and 0 comebacks) for my own dataset convenience, you get 196 total series where somebody went down 3-1. Of those teams, 61 played Game 1 at home. Teams that played Game 1 at home and went down 3-1 came back 6 times, or 9.8% of the time. Teams that played Game 1 on the road and went down 3-1 came back twice, or 1.5% of the time.

   It's dire for both OKC and Chicago, but if you had to pick one team to come back, the Bulls would be a far better bet than the Thunder.

3. Neil Paine Says:
   May 25th, 2011 at 1:30 pm

   Also, how about the 1-1-1-1-1-1-1 format in that 1968 series? Sounds great on paper, until you consider the insanity of the travel involved.

4. huevonkiller Says:
   May 25th, 2011 at 1:43 pm

   The last couple of times were in the first round. I don't think it is happening this year Neil.

5. Ray Says:
   May 25th, 2011 at 2:03 pm

   I wonder how much point differential can tell us, if anything, about a team's chances of coming back. On the one hand, close losses (especially in OT) probably mean the match-up is more even than 3-1 would indicate, but it also seems like there is usually an emotional sucker-punch involved for the team finding itself in a hole.

6. huevonkiller Says:
   May 25th, 2011 at 2:29 pm

   Regular Season SRS might be telling here. More talented teams have a better chance of coming back.

   The 05 Suns against the 05 Spurs for example, not as much. Even though the Suns won more games the Spurs had a better point differential.

7. Brandon Lee Says:
   May 25th, 2011 at 3:14 pm

   Great info here. How many times has the team down 3-1 even forced a game 7? [even if they lost the deciding game]

8. Cort Says:
   May 25th, 2011 at 11:25 pm

   The 1981 ECF series between Philly and Boston is the best playoff series I ever saw. Two hated rivals, plenty of great players, great drama and last-minute heroics - last 4 games decided by 2, 2, 2 and 1 points. McHale saved game 6 with a block and rebound of a Toney drive after Bird's high-bouncing leaner gave Boston the lead.
   Bird's banker in the final minute won game 7 91-90. Over the last five minutes or so Boston shut out the 76ers from the field with some of the fiercest defense in NBA playoff history.
   Boston almost did it again the next year to the 76ers. After blowing them out by 40 in game 1, Philly took control and won the next 3 after Nate Archibald went down with a separated shoulder. Boston won the next two but Philly rose up and took game 7 in Boston, making them (at the time) the only team other than the 73 Knicks to win a game 7 in the Garden.
   Ironically, Boston was also down 1-3 in that series too after another shoulder injury, this one to Havlicek. Both times the Celtics had the best record in the league but didnt win it all. With all the titles they have won, it is even more ironic that they year they posted the best record in franchise history (68-14) that Boston didnt win it that time.
   Of course, with a healthy Havlicek, league MVP Cowens and Jo Jo White they likely would have won it all over LA. Wilt retired after getting a chery pick dunk with 1 second left in the game 5 Finals loss to the Knicks.

9. Cort Says:
   May 25th, 2011 at 11:50 pm

   I'd like to see the NBA give a conference playoff MVP, like baseball does for its LCS (League Championship Series), only in the NBA it would be for the 3 total rounds performance. Sometimes a guy gets the Finals MVP but isnt the total playoff MVP.
   For this year of course Dirk would be the West playoff MVP. If things keep going the same in the East, LeBron would likely get it, or Wade. Rose if Chicago came back to in it probably.
   I'd like to see retro-active playoff MVPs given too, from 1947-68. Jerry West got the first MVP in 69, and is still the only man to win it from a losing team. I suspect Russell would have a boatload of Finals MVPs.
   Bird would have won the East playoff MVP in 1981-84-85-86-87.

10. Matt Says:
    May 26th, 2011 at 9:19 am

    #8. I'm very glad I wasn't around to be a Sixers fan in 1981, though I guess the '83 title could help soothe things.

    To go up 3-1 only to lose 3 consecutive games by a combined 5 points must really, really hurt.

11. AHL Says:
    May 26th, 2011 at 4:59 pm

    More! More game logs from pre-1985!

12. Bill Says:
    May 26th, 2011 at 5:51 pm

    The 1997 series deserves an asterisk -- Stern suspended 5 Knicks starters for the last two games due to the game-5 brawl. The Knicks team that lost the last two games was very different from the team that was up 3-2.

13. JeremyD Says:
    May 27th, 2011 at 2:57 pm

    12 - I agree it deserves an asterik, but it wasn't 5 starters for 2 games. LJ, Houston and Ewing were starters. Ward and Starks were both coming off the bench at that point, although they were getting about 45-50 minutes combined a night. And only Starks and LJ were suspended for Game 7.

    I remember watching that series, and being amazed that the Knicks still had a lead in the 4th.