More Turkey Day Specials
Posted by Neil Paine on November 24, 2010
Here's a follow up to a post I made two years ago regarding the best Thanksgiving Day performances since 1987. I only looked at raw totals then, but this time around I think we should nerd it up with an overflowing cornucopia of advanced stats. Yum!
Hollinger Game Score
The most basic metric you might consider "advanced" is John Hollinger's Game Score. It's a simple linear weights formula based on his infinitely more complex Player Efficiency Rating, but the weights are a step up from something like TENDEX. Here are the best Thanksgiving games by game score since 1987:
| Player | Date | Tm | Opp | GS | MP | FG | FGA | 3P | 3PA | FT | FTA | ORB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS | GmSc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Miller | 11/28/2002 | LAC | NJN | 1 | 48.0 | 14 | 24 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 37 | 38.1 |
| Keith Van Horn | 11/22/2001 | NJN | LAC | 1 | 40.0 | 12 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 29.3 |
| Carlos Boozer | 11/26/2009 | UTA | CHI | 1 | 34.6 | 12 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 29.2 |
| Jason Kidd | 11/28/2002 | NJN | LAC | 1 | 42.0 | 12 | 24 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 29.0 |
| Dwight Howard | 11/27/2008 | ORL | WAS | 1 | 38.2 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 14 | 4 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 27.1 |
| J.R. Smith | 11/27/2008 | DEN | NOH | 0 | 32.6 | 13 | 21 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 26.8 |
| Jamaal Tinsley | 11/22/2001 | IND | WAS | 1 | 45.0 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 26.6 |
| C. Laettner | 11/22/2001 | WAS | IND | 1 | 45.0 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 25.5 |
| Vince Carter | 11/22/2001 | TOR | MIL | 1 | 40.0 | 11 | 23 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 24.9 |
| Robert Pack | 11/28/1996 | NJN | GSW | 1 | 40.0 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 24.6 |
| Steve Nash | 11/28/2002 | DAL | IND | 1 | 41.0 | 10 | 23 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 29 | 24.5 |
| Elton Brand | 11/22/2001 | LAC | NJN | 1 | 39.0 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 6 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 24.3 |
| Rashard Lewis | 11/24/2005 | SEA | LAL | 1 | 43.5 | 12 | 23 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 32 | 24.3 |
| Lamar Odom | 11/24/2005 | LAL | SEA | 1 | 44.7 | 6 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 23.8 |
| Jamaal Tinsley | 11/25/2004 | IND | MIN | 1 | 41.0 | 7 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 23.4 |
Dean Oliver's Net Points
Game Score is nice for back-of-the-envelope assessments, but for more in-depth analysis we need to go to advanced stats like the individual Offensive & Defensive Ratings developed by Dean Oliver. One quick way to combine offense and defense into one rating is to subtract a player's "points allowed" ((DRtg/100)*(.2*((mp/(tm_mp/5))*tm_poss))) from his Points Produced, creating a "net points" metric:
| Player | Date | Tm | Opp | GS | MP | FG | FGA | 3P | 3PA | FT | FTA | ORB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS | netpts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Miller | 11/28/2002 | LAC | NJN | 1 | 48.0 | 14 | 24 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 37 | 20.6 |
| Kobe Bryant | 11/24/2005 | LAL | SEA | 1 | 38.8 | 12 | 26 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 34 | 13.8 |
| Jermaine O'Neal | 11/27/2003 | IND | NYK | 1 | 30.0 | 12 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 13.7 |
| Keith Van Horn | 11/22/2001 | NJN | LAC | 1 | 40.0 | 12 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 12.5 |
| Vince Carter | 11/22/2001 | TOR | MIL | 1 | 40.0 | 11 | 23 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 11.9 |
| Jerry Stackhouse | 11/25/1999 | DET | IND | 1 | 41.0 | 8 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 26 | 11.9 |
| Steve Nash | 11/28/2002 | DAL | IND | 1 | 41.0 | 10 | 23 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 29 | 11.8 |
| Jason Kidd | 11/28/2002 | NJN | LAC | 1 | 42.0 | 12 | 24 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 11.5 |
| Dwight Howard | 11/26/2009 | ORL | ATL | 1 | 41.1 | 9 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 22 | 11.4 |
| J.R. Smith | 11/27/2008 | DEN | NOH | 0 | 32.6 | 13 | 21 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 11.4 |
| Jamaal Tinsley | 11/22/2001 | IND | WAS | 1 | 45.0 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 11.3 |
| Carlos Boozer | 11/26/2009 | UTA | CHI | 1 | 34.6 | 12 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 11.3 |
| Jamaal Tinsley | 11/25/2004 | IND | MIN | 1 | 41.0 | 7 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 11.1 |
| Vince Carter | 11/23/2000 | TOR | IND | 1 | 40.0 | 9 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 10.8 |
| Dwight Howard | 11/27/2008 | ORL | WAS | 1 | 38.2 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 14 | 4 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 10.5 |
Win Shares
Another way to combine Dean's rate stats into a single metric measuring player contribution is our own Win Shares, created by BBR chief Justin Kubatko. Here are the best Thanksgiving games by WS:
| Player | Date | Tm | Opp | GS | MP | ORtg | %P | DRtg | P36 | TS% | AsR | ToR | OR% | DR% | Bk% | St% | OWS | DWS | WS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Miller | 11/28/2002 | LAC | NJN | 1 | 48.0 | 153.1 | 31.1 | 123.3 | 27.8 | 68.3 | 57.8 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.53 | -0.06 | 0.46 |
| C. Boozer | 11/26/2009 | UTA | CHI | 1 | 34.6 | 154.6 | 23.9 | 95.2 | 29.1 | 86.4 | 24.5 | 13.3 | 4.0 | 24.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.27 | 0.09 | 0.36 |
| L. Odom | 11/24/2005 | LAL | SEA | 1 | 44.7 | 153.7 | 18.6 | 101.3 | 18.5 | 62.5 | 21.1 | 0.0 | 4.9 | 26.2 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 0.28 | 0.08 | 0.35 |
| K. Van Horn | 11/22/2001 | NJN | LAC | 1 | 40.0 | 127.3 | 25.6 | 84.9 | 30.6 | 68.1 | 6.8 | 14.6 | 7.1 | 24.0 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 0.19 | 0.14 | 0.33 |
| V. Carter | 11/23/2000 | TOR | IND | 1 | 40.0 | 143.8 | 24.3 | 104.9 | 25.2 | 70.1 | 21.3 | 10.7 | 5.7 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.29 | 0.04 | 0.33 |
| D. Howard | 11/27/2008 | ORL | WAS | 1 | 38.2 | 138.6 | 23.5 | 91.4 | 24.5 | 71.6 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 10.5 | 26.8 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 0.20 | 0.12 | 0.32 |
| V. Carter | 11/22/2001 | TOR | MIL | 1 | 40.0 | 120.5 | 27.3 | 83.4 | 23.4 | 54.4 | 30.3 | 5.0 | 8.7 | 14.1 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.31 |
| E. Brand | 11/22/2001 | LAC | NJN | 1 | 39.0 | 132.7 | 23.1 | 93.4 | 21.2 | 61.4 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 16.4 | 24.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.20 | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| J. O'Neal | 11/27/2003 | IND | NYK | 1 | 30.0 | 120.4 | 34.5 | 77.9 | 32.4 | 58.2 | 28.6 | 5.5 | 12.0 | 37.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.29 |
| K. Willis | 11/23/2000 | TOR | IND | 0 | 32.0 | 152.8 | 20.2 | 100.9 | 25.9 | 69.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 11.5 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 0.23 | 0.04 | 0.27 |
| A. Johnson | 11/26/2009 | ORL | ATL | 0 | 21.1 | 172.6 | 23.6 | 95.4 | 29.0 | 78.1 | 31.9 | 0.0 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.27 |
| R. Artest | 11/27/2003 | IND | NYK | 1 | 35.0 | 116.3 | 25.4 | 76.4 | 21.6 | 59.1 | 21.9 | 12.8 | 3.4 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 8.1 | 0.12 | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| R. Theus | 11/26/1987 | SAC | NJN | 1 | 37.0 | 149.3 | 18.6 | 103.6 | 24.3 | 79.3 | 13.4 | 14.2 | 0.0 | 14.4 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.20 | 0.06 | 0.26 |
| J. Kidd | 11/28/2002 | NJN | LAC | 1 | 42.0 | 144.4 | 28.3 | 130.6 | 30.0 | 66.8 | 35.0 | 9.0 | 2.6 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.36 | -0.09 | 0.26 |
| C. Laettner | 11/22/2001 | WAS | IND | 1 | 45.0 | 160.1 | 15.3 | 115.3 | 15.2 | 66.3 | 21.7 | 0.0 | 14.4 | 20.8 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 0.27 | -0.01 | 0.26 |
Statistical Plus/Minus
Finally, let's look at the Thanksgiving leaders in Statistical +/-, a pet stat of mine originally developed by Dan Rosenbaum. Since this is a rate stat, we'll have to set a minimum of 24.4 minutes played to qualify for the list:
| Player | Date | Tm | Opp | GS | MP | FG | FGA | 3P | 3PA | FT | FTA | OR | TR | AS | ST | BK | TO | PF | PT | OSP | DSP | SPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Artest | 11/27/2003 | IND | NYK | 1 | 35.0 | 8 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 9.12 | 9.11 | 18.22 |
| Carlos Boozer | 11/26/2009 | UTA | CHI | 1 | 34.6 | 12 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 14.66 | 3.34 | 18.00 |
| Jermaine O'Neal | 11/27/2003 | IND | NYK | 1 | 30.0 | 12 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 14.59 | 2.91 | 17.51 |
| Keith Van Horn | 11/22/2001 | NJN | LAC | 1 | 40.0 | 12 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 10.93 | 6.51 | 17.44 |
| J.R. Smith | 11/27/2008 | DEN | NOH | 0 | 32.6 | 13 | 21 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 21.63 | -4.25 | 17.38 |
| Rasual Butler | 11/27/2008 | NOH | DEN | 1 | 33.3 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 14.99 | 1.69 | 16.69 |
| Andre Miller | 11/28/2002 | LAC | NJN | 1 | 48.0 | 14 | 24 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 37 | 20.41 | -4.61 | 15.80 |
| Chris Mullin | 11/27/1997 | IND | VAN | 1 | 31.0 | 12 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 12.84 | 2.28 | 15.13 |
| Dale Davis | 11/24/1994 | IND | GSW | 1 | 27.0 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 7.64 | 7.43 | 15.07 |
| Jamaal Tinsley | 11/25/2004 | IND | MIN | 1 | 41.0 | 7 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 7.63 | 7.23 | 14.86 |
| Lamar Odom | 11/24/2005 | LAL | SEA | 1 | 44.7 | 6 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 9.18 | 4.64 | 13.82 |
| Derrick McKey | 11/24/1994 | IND | GSW | 1 | 26.0 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 5.05 | 7.45 | 12.50 |
| Vince Carter | 11/22/2001 | TOR | MIL | 1 | 40.0 | 11 | 23 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 9.27 | 3.08 | 12.35 |
| Smush Parker | 11/24/2005 | LAL | SEA | 1 | 33.5 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 3.97 | 8.31 | 12.28 |
| Deron Williams | 11/26/2009 | UTA | CHI | 1 | 38.7 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 6.79 | 4.45 | 11.24 |
It looks like the consensus is that Andre Miller's 2002 performance against the Nets still stands as the top Thanksgiving Day performance since 1987.
There are two chances for someone to beat him tomorrow, though, as the Wizards face the Hawks and the Kings take on the Clippers. Will the turkey torch be passed this year?
November 26th, 2010 at 5:01 am
Hey, I do not know how often the author or BBR follows up on comments, but I think one of the reasons you may not have any comments despite it being two days is the post is showing up blank until under the sidebar. This was a problem when I clicked the header but not a problem when I clicked the bottom link, as it brought me directly to the post, although the white space in the middle along the sidebar still exists. Thank you for this article, however I do have a lot of reservations about Hollinger's stats. I have been doing an analysis of Hollinger's rating, your simple rating system and playoff seeds to determine which method is the best for predicting playoff series wins. I have finished analysis of the simple rating system and the playoff seeds all the way back to 1950, and determined that SRS outperforms the actual seeds slightly in this time. As I have had to calculate Hollinger's ratings on my own, I have only released the results of Hollinger and the other rating systems for the past 5 years, and I am working my way back. Hollinger is not performing as well as SRS or the playoff seeds, so I am beginning to have doubts about the validity or usefulness of his other statistics. I hope to get an e-mail response from you guys about why you think your system outperforms Hollinger's ratings and playoff seeds! I would like to share your insight with my readers.
November 26th, 2010 at 2:07 pm
Thanks for letting us know about the formatting bug (I'm assuming you're in Internet Explorer?). We'll take a look at why the content is shifted below the sidebar.
As for Hollinger's ratings, I'm not sure... I've seen the formula, but I don't really know how he derived it. It seems like the biggest difference between the SRS and JH's system is the extra weight he gives recent games, which may be leading to the discrepancy.
December 2nd, 2010 at 10:41 pm
Hey, yeah, I was on internet explorer, it is fixed now. Thank you so much for the quick response, I have been working on updating the design on my blog so I was not able to respond... Yeah, I was thinking the same thing about the Hollinger ratings. During the summer, I am going to attempt to tweak his ratings to include more of the final games of a season (probably 20) while not including games after teams have already clinched a certain place in the playoff seeds. Seeing that SRS is even more accurate than the seeds is really nice.