Offensive Quality of Teammates
Posted by Neil Paine on November 22, 2008
Friday's post about Kevin Durant and the terrible supporting cast he has on the Thunder got me thinking about going one step further and measuring the quality of one's teammates in a talent sense. The offensive rating-based method we used the other day is good for evaluating short-term strategy decisions -- for instance, if a certain player is significantly less efficient than his teammates (think Bonzi Wells on the 2003 Blazers), it's valuable as a decision-maker to recognize this and be able to tell that player to, you know, chill out with the shooting and such... However, it's not quite ideal for identifying teammates' talent levels over a period of time, because efficiency is only half of the puzzle; a player's usage is also determined by his talent level, but that's not accounted for when you look at ORtg alone.
Fortunately, we're not limited to using just offensive ratings when we measure the quality of one's teammates. We can also look at Offensive Win Shares, which effectively combine both usage and efficiency into a single number that can be evaluated on a per-minute basis. This is less informative at the short term decision-making level because it doesn't tell you about teammate fit, etc., but it's great for establishing the talent level of a player's teammates over the course of multiple seasons (or even an entire career).
Which begs the question: historically, which players have had the luxury of playing with the most talented teammates? Weighting each teammate's career OWS/3000 minutes by the amount of playing time spent alongside those teammates, here are the most fortunate NBA players from 1973-74 to 2007-08, in terms of terrific supporting casts (minimum 15000 career MP):
Player Minutes OWS OWS/3K Tm_OWS/3K Michael Cooper 23635 27.98 3.55 5.36 Bryon Russell 19804 23.52 3.56 5.02 James Worthy 30001 51.27 5.13 4.78 Jamaal Wilkes 27275 44.02 4.84 4.68 Mark Eaton 25169 -3.49 -0.42 4.65 John Paxson 17257 25.25 4.39 4.64 Kurt Rambis 16299 14.14 2.60 4.61 Norm Nixon 27250 31.13 3.43 4.61 T.R. Dunn 23080 19.22 2.50 4.56 Byron Scott 30153 46.28 4.60 4.55 Mike Gale 17090 7.38 1.30 4.46 Rik Smits 23100 29.67 3.85 4.45 Magic Johnson 33245 110.52 9.97 4.42 A.C. Green 36552 58.03 4.76 4.40 Scottie Pippen 41069 56.73 4.14 4.39 Sam Perkins 36598 61.55 5.05 4.37 Derek Fisher 22244 25.08 3.38 4.34 Danny Ainge 27755 45.75 4.94 4.32 Michael Finley 34952 55.69 4.78 4.28 David Thompson 19406 51.44 7.95 4.26
Many Showtime-era Lakers grace the list (including Magic himself), and in general it's a pretty cool mix of really good offensive players (Pippen, Worthy, Thompson, etc.), really bad ones (Eaton, Gale, Dunn), and everything in between. Michael Cooper, for instance, never once missed the playoffs during his 12-year NBA career, but we can see here that it had a lot more to do with his supporting cast than his own talents.
At the other end of the spectrum, here are those weary, long-suffering players saddled with the least talented offensive supporting casts over the course of their careers:
Player Minutes OWS OWS/3K Tm_OWS/3K Charles Smith 16378 17.97 3.29 2.20 Ken Norman 18992 8.92 1.41 2.20 Bernard King 29417 49.11 5.01 2.29 Pete Maravich 15999 17.51 3.28 2.30 Otis Birdsong 21627 28.98 4.02 2.41 Paul Westphal 20465 44.75 6.56 2.55 Paul Pierce 27490 58.55 6.39 2.58 Fred Brown 21743 38.05 5.25 2.61 Reggie Williams 16013 8.63 1.62 2.63 John Drew 21828 44.07 6.06 2.65 Rory Sparrow 22550 9.92 1.32 2.66 Greg Ballard 22073 23.84 3.24 2.66 Kevin Porter 17890 18.97 3.18 2.67 Kenny Anderson 25868 36.56 4.24 2.67 Austin Carr 15024 18.29 3.65 2.67 Kevin Edwards 15332 -1.78 -0.35 2.68 Harvey Grant 20510 16.63 2.43 2.70 Wes Unseld 20468 25.69 3.77 2.71 Grant Long 28514 26.74 2.81 2.71 Benoit Benjamin 21911 3.24 0.44 2.72
You have to feel for players like Bernard King, who frequently found himself carrying more than a few abysmal offenses throughout his career. The same goes for Paul Pierce -- until 2008, that is. Before the Big 3 was formed, Boston ranked in the top 14 in offensive efficiency just once (2004-05) during P-Double's stay in the Hub. On the other hand, you have guys like Norman and Edwards, who were right at home with their untalented mates.
On a related note, here are the players who rose above their teammates the most during their careers:
Player Minutes OWS OWS/3K Tm_OWS/3K Diff Michael Jordan 41013 146.04 10.68 3.27 7.41 Adrian Dantley 34151 111.27 9.77 3.18 6.59 Dirk Nowitzki 27644 91.47 9.93 3.83 6.10 Magic Johnson 33245 110.52 9.97 4.42 5.55 Charles Barkley 39330 122.30 9.33 3.81 5.52 Steve Nash 26528 84.46 9.55 4.11 5.44 Reggie Miller 47621 138.82 8.75 3.35 5.40 Kobe Bryant 31572 91.88 8.73 3.56 5.17 John Stockton 47764 141.01 8.86 3.76 5.10 David Robinson 34271 97.65 8.55 3.46 5.08 LeBron James 16088 42.29 7.89 2.81 5.08 Shaquille O'Neal 37674 109.00 8.68 3.62 5.06 Chauncey Billups 24087 65.74 8.19 3.29 4.89 Kevin Johnson 25061 72.34 8.66 4.04 4.62 Sidney Moncrief 23150 60.46 7.84 3.33 4.50 Dan Issel 31409 89.06 8.51 4.03 4.48 Kiki Vandeweghe 24521 69.99 8.56 4.09 4.47 Bob Lanier 23844 57.58 7.24 2.77 4.47 Michael Redd 17506 44.91 7.70 3.23 4.47 Ray Allen 32223 84.41 7.86 3.58 4.28
MJ owns, as usual, but how good was Magic Johnson -- he appeared on our list of "best supporting casts" and still rose high above them. That's impressive. Conversely, LBJ and Bob Lanier both managed to average more than 7.0 OWS/3000 minutes despite ranking among the bottom 32 all-time in "teammate talent". Needless to say, LeBron may be leaving that group soon; it's safe to assume that his supporting cast nowadays is a wee bit better than the days when he was lining up alongside Ira Newble.
And you know that this post wouldn't be complete without a list of the players who didn't exactly size up when compared to their teammates:
Player Minutes OWS OWS/3K Tm_OWS/3K Diff Mark Eaton 25169 -3.49 -0.42 4.65 -5.07 Darrell Griffith 21403 1.30 0.18 4.22 -4.04 Quinn Buckner 16245 1.38 0.25 4.07 -3.81 Gar Heard 15493 -1.23 -0.24 3.42 -3.66 Brian Shaw 21665 3.47 0.48 4.10 -3.62 Chris Dudley 16321 -1.40 -0.26 3.24 -3.49 Herb Williams 28484 -1.18 -0.12 3.36 -3.48 Mike Gale 17090 7.38 1.30 4.46 -3.17 Lionel Hollins 18453 1.99 0.32 3.46 -3.13 Kevin Edwards 15332 -1.78 -0.35 2.68 -3.03 George Johnson 17753 1.51 0.26 3.22 -2.96 Bruce Bowen 22547 8.92 1.19 4.11 -2.92 Antoine Walker 31531 5.98 0.57 3.47 -2.90 Alton Lister 18965 5.42 0.86 3.73 -2.88 LaSalle Thompson 21238 8.18 1.16 3.91 -2.76 John Bagley 17120 2.83 0.50 3.24 -2.74 Jon Koncak 16409 6.02 1.10 3.83 -2.73 Kevin Duckworth 17462 6.89 1.18 3.89 -2.71 Vernon Maxwell 24309 7.28 0.90 3.58 -2.68 Howard Eisley 16011 8.39 1.57 4.25 -2.67
There are lots of big men and defensive specialists up and down that list, plus one name which may (or may not) surprise you: Antoine Walker. 'Toine was once an "alpha dog" himself on the Celtics, and he's played with some of the best ballers in the business -- Paul Pierce, Dwyane Wade, Shaquille O'Neal, etc. -- but his often-abominable shot selection (particularly his penchant for hoisting bricks from the outside) leaves him with a career offensive rating of 97 and just 6 OWS in 12 seasons. As a result, fairly or unfairly, Win Shares considers Walker's offensive value to be greatly inferior to that of his teammates over the course of his career.
November 24th, 2008 at 7:51 am
Great writeup, Neil. Excellent use of available stats. I haven't seen win-shares on a per-minute basis elsewhere. I'm guessing an average WS rate would be about 1 per 484 minutes? So average OWS (or DWS) is 1 per 968?
Where does Robert Horry fall among those with great teammates? In 16 years, he never failed to reach the 2nd round of the playoffs. Were those Hou, LA, SA teams just great defensive teams? Or did Horry carry them?
Per 968 min, Horry averaged .84 OWS in regular seasons, and 1.38 in playoffs.
November 24th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
The average rate for all players since 1973 is 3.24 OWS/3000 minutes.
At #22, Horry ranks just outside of the list with an average teammate quality of 4.23 OWS/3K.
November 24th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
How many of the last list got max deals?
November 24th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
Can you do this for partial careers? It might be interesting to see David Robinson before the Duncan Draft, or KG before moving to Boston...
November 24th, 2008 at 5:21 pm
OK....we needed an in-depth analysy to learn that a player had it made (team mate-wise) when he played with Kareem and Magic, or with Scottie and Michael, or with Stockton and Malone?
November 24th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
It's interesting how Kobe ranked above Shaq in the "the players who rose above their teammates the most during their careers"
November 24th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
Kobe's production relative to his teammates could have been inflated by the dysfunctional teams around him for several years immediately after Shaq left. If LA keeps their current, more talented squad together through the end of Bryant's career, Shaq will probably move ahead of him.
November 24th, 2008 at 6:43 pm
In addition to Horry, how about Steve Kerr (5 rings) or Ron Harper (5 rings) or Horace Grant (4 rings, plus played with young Shaq)?
November 25th, 2008 at 8:41 am
Where does Allen Iverson fit? That 2001 team was not upper echelon. I can't think of him playing with many All-stars or MVP caliber players. He had less talent than Kobe, Dirk, Nash, surely...
November 25th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
I think the "Kobe ranking ahead of Shaq" thing is also a byproduct of where they are in their careers right now -- Kobe's still in the middle of his prime, while Shaq's recent "down years" are included in his career performance (both in his own #s and as a teammate). By the time Kobe is 36, he'll probably drop back behind the big fella again because A) his current team is stacked, and B) his own production will have declined as well.
As for other notable players: Kerr actually ranks 75th, which surprises me, but he only got 3.5 years w/ the Jordan Bulls. Plus, I guess those Cleveland teams of the early 90s didn't have the greatest offenses (19th in '90, 18th in '92), and Shaq hadn't fully hit his stride when Kerr was on the Magic... Similarly, Harper ranks 189th -- before spending the final 7 years of his career as a role player with the Bulls and Lakers (including that awful '99 CHI team), Harper was the go-to guy on some pretty bad offenses with the Cavs and Clippers, which really drags down his score. Ho-Grant is 41st; he played on some dynamite offenses from '90 to '96 (when Shaq left), but the 2nd half of his career is a mixed bag in terms of offensive teams. Finally, AI has had the 22nd-worst offensive supporting cast among all players; I shudder to think what it would have been before playing 5545 minutes alongside Carmelo (and yes, partial careers are possible, but it's kind of time-consuming, so I might save it for a later post if you can give me some more interesting examples you want to see done).
November 25th, 2008 at 5:06 pm
Surprises me that KG isn't on the list of players who "rose above his teammates". He was dominant on some pretty bad timberwolves teams.
September 25th, 2009 at 8:36 am
kb24/8 a living legend!no matter in how many weasel ways he is beig bashed by number crunching!