Layups: The ‘Black Hole Atlas’
Posted by Neil Paine on February 15, 2011
How in the cosmos did I miss this the first time around?
Two weeks ago, while I was busy with Super Bowl/Hall of Fame work at PFR, SBNation's Tom Ziller posted a story -- and an awesome graphic -- about the biggest "black holes" (players who never pass) in the NBA.
That Kobe Bryant comes out as the biggest black hole among high-usage guards is controversial, and probably turned a lot of people off to the graphic on principle, but it's still a cool concept. For what it's worth, here's my list of the guards (min 30 MPG) who pass the least per touch:
| Player | Pos | G | Min | MPG | T/Min | %Pass | %Shoot | %Fouled | %TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Young | G | 52 | 1641 | 31.6 | 0.81 | 27.4% | 55.4% | 12.0% | 5.1% |
| DeMar DeRozan | G | 55 | 1885 | 34.3 | 0.84 | 36.1% | 44.2% | 13.9% | 5.8% |
| Jason Richardson | G | 55 | 1820 | 33.1 | 0.78 | 36.2% | 51.8% | 7.8% | 4.2% |
| Anthony Morrow | G | 39 | 1244 | 31.9 | 0.62 | 36.3% | 51.8% | 7.1% | 4.8% |
| Kevin Martin | G | 54 | 1688 | 31.3 | 1.22 | 36.4% | 39.2% | 18.9% | 5.6% |
| Wesley Matthews | G | 55 | 1871 | 34.0 | 0.92 | 39.5% | 42.2% | 12.4% | 5.9% |
| Vince Carter | G-F | 45 | 1353 | 30.1 | 0.98 | 45.6% | 42.1% | 7.7% | 4.5% |
| Dwyane Wade | G | 50 | 1847 | 36.9 | 1.48 | 48.3% | 32.9% | 12.8% | 5.9% |
| Brandon Roy | G | 23 | 813 | 35.3 | 1.17 | 48.8% | 36.7% | 10.4% | 4.0% |
| Kobe Bryant | G | 56 | 1894 | 33.8 | 1.71 | 50.0% | 33.8% | 10.9% | 5.3% |
| Ray Allen | G | 53 | 1911 | 36.1 | 0.95 | 50.4% | 37.8% | 7.4% | 4.5% |
| Eric Gordon | G | 41 | 1550 | 37.8 | 1.39 | 50.7% | 33.0% | 11.4% | 5.0% |
| Carlos Delfino | G | 22 | 727 | 33.0 | 0.91 | 50.9% | 39.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% |
| Dorell Wright | G-F | 53 | 2073 | 39.1 | 0.92 | 51.0% | 37.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% |
| Raja Bell | G | 50 | 1534 | 30.7 | 0.62 | 51.3% | 37.8% | 6.6% | 4.3% |
| John Salmons | G | 45 | 1544 | 34.3 | 1.07 | 52.1% | 33.8% | 8.8% | 5.4% |
| Monta Ellis | G | 53 | 2180 | 41.1 | 1.46 | 52.3% | 33.5% | 8.8% | 5.4% |
| Jamal Crawford | G | 48 | 1478 | 30.8 | 1.26 | 53.6% | 31.6% | 9.6% | 5.2% |
| Arron Afflalo | G | 56 | 1972 | 35.2 | 0.72 | 54.1% | 34.7% | 7.0% | 4.3% |
| Tyreke Evans | G | 46 | 1740 | 37.8 | 1.47 | 57.0% | 29.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% |
| Jason Terry | G | 54 | 1746 | 32.3 | 1.38 | 58.1% | 32.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% |
| Joe Johnson | G | 45 | 1628 | 36.2 | 1.54 | 58.8% | 31.2% | 6.4% | 3.6% |
| Brandon Jennings | G | 35 | 1155 | 33.0 | 1.54 | 58.9% | 29.8% | 6.8% | 4.5% |
| Rodney Stuckey | G | 47 | 1416 | 30.1 | 1.54 | 58.9% | 26.0% | 10.5% | 4.6% |
| Manu Ginobili | G | 55 | 1706 | 31.0 | 1.56 | 59.3% | 26.4% | 9.5% | 4.8% |
| Derrick Rose | G | 51 | 1936 | 38.0 | 2.03 | 62.4% | 26.3% | 6.7% | 4.6% |
| Beno Udrih | G | 51 | 1757 | 34.5 | 1.14 | 63.1% | 26.0% | 6.8% | 4.2% |
| Stephen Curry | G | 45 | 1529 | 34.0 | 1.59 | 63.5% | 25.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% |
| Darren Collison | G | 49 | 1490 | 30.4 | 1.48 | 63.6% | 25.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% |
| Chauncey Billups | G | 50 | 1610 | 32.2 | 1.45 | 64.6% | 21.5% | 8.7% | 5.2% |
| Russell Westbrook | G | 53 | 1900 | 35.8 | 2.14 | 64.8% | 22.3% | 7.8% | 5.0% |
| Kirk Hinrich | G | 47 | 1440 | 30.6 | 1.25 | 67.0% | 23.6% | 4.9% | 4.6% |
| Tony Parker | G | 55 | 1791 | 32.6 | 1.80 | 67.6% | 22.8% | 5.4% | 4.3% |
| Andre Iguodala | G-F | 42 | 1561 | 37.2 | 1.43 | 67.7% | 21.5% | 7.3% | 3.4% |
| Jrue Holiday | G | 54 | 1880 | 34.8 | 1.54 | 68.3% | 22.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% |
| Mike Bibby | G | 54 | 1621 | 30.0 | 1.08 | 68.7% | 25.1% | 2.4% | 3.8% |
| D.J. Augustin | G | 55 | 1851 | 33.7 | 1.58 | 69.3% | 21.6% | 5.7% | 3.4% |
| Deron Williams | G | 51 | 1929 | 37.8 | 2.18 | 69.8% | 18.8% | 7.2% | 4.2% |
| Mo Williams | G | 35 | 1062 | 30.3 | 2.01 | 69.9% | 21.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% |
| Devin Harris | G | 53 | 1693 | 31.9 | 2.07 | 70.2% | 17.6% | 7.7% | 4.6% |
| Mike Conley | G | 56 | 2009 | 35.9 | 1.56 | 70.3% | 20.6% | 5.0% | 4.1% |
| Raymond Felton | G | 53 | 2038 | 38.5 | 1.84 | 71.8% | 20.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% |
| John Wall | G | 41 | 1511 | 36.9 | 1.99 | 72.0% | 17.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% |
| Kyle Lowry | G | 52 | 1719 | 33.1 | 1.54 | 72.0% | 18.7% | 5.3% | 4.0% |
| Andre Miller | G | 54 | 1762 | 32.6 | 1.92 | 72.1% | 17.8% | 5.8% | 4.3% |
| Chris Paul | G | 56 | 1996 | 35.6 | 2.18 | 75.8% | 15.0% | 5.9% | 3.2% |
| Steve Nash | G | 50 | 1658 | 33.2 | 2.50 | 77.9% | 13.6% | 4.1% | 4.3% |
| Jose Calderon | G | 48 | 1486 | 31.0 | 2.05 | 80.8% | 13.8% | 2.0% | 3.4% |
| Jason Kidd | G | 54 | 1818 | 33.7 | 1.80 | 81.2% | 13.7% | 1.3% | 3.8% |
| Rajon Rondo | G | 42 | 1585 | 37.7 | 2.35 | 82.6% | 11.0% | 2.0% | 4.4% |
When it comes to guards who touch the ball once per minute or more, Kevin Martin is easily the most allergic to passing the rock by this metric. He's dishing it off on only 36% of his touches, with the rest devoted to shooting, drawing a foul, or turning the ball over. By comparison, Kobe Bryant looks positively philanthropic with a 50% pass rate (granted, at a level of touches/min where a pass rate as low as Martin's would be unsustainable).
February 15th, 2011 at 12:17 pm
Nick Young is straight psycho jackin. He's like the Dexter of jacking up shots. 9% points ahead of the field.
JACKIN
February 15th, 2011 at 12:39 pm
Dare I say the ball is getting jacked more than Warren G at a dice game on 2-1 and Lewis?
(Any excuse for a regulators reference)
February 15th, 2011 at 1:41 pm
Huh. Martin gets fouled like crazy.
February 15th, 2011 at 1:50 pm
Any chance of getting something similar for other positions? Also, using "guard" as the level of position is quite problematic, putting together PGs and SGs, where you would expect a significantly higher pass% for PGs. Probably using Forward as a definition is less of a problem, except for teams playing "point-forward".
February 15th, 2011 at 2:34 pm
Quick! Someone call Henry Abbott!
February 15th, 2011 at 2:50 pm
#4
I can agree on principle with the idea of putting guards together, but I don't think it takes away from the data. I actually think it helps put a lot of it into perspective. Shooting guards are shooting guards for a reason and Nick Young is still legendary, but I think it's interesting that Brandon Jennings passes it about as often as Joe Johnson does and that the crowd that is stalwart against classifying Tyreke Evans as a PG have some claim. I think it's a good piece of information to have in terms of perspective amongst the most defer centric SGs and shot heavy PGs.
I'd like to see the data for forwards/centers as well, however, though I think the data would be a whole lot less interesting since black hole big men are nothing revolutionary.
February 15th, 2011 at 3:09 pm
it would be interesting to see this for all positions.
February 15th, 2011 at 3:20 pm
The biggest black hole of them all, regardless of position, has to be Moses Malone....
February 15th, 2011 at 3:48 pm
I would say that Kevin McHale would give Malone a run for his money.
February 15th, 2011 at 3:52 pm
Martin's drawn foul percentage seems to make up most of the difference. Almost twenty percent! I bet that's up there with the Dwight Howard's of the league. And he shoots nearly 90% from the line. Martin shooting free throws is pretty close to an ideal possession by NBA standards. If you're Houston, you want to engineer your offense so that alot of possessions end with him. An additional pass would often just lower your efficiency.
February 15th, 2011 at 5:09 pm
How was Kobe listed as the biggest bloack hole when 9 guards are ahead of him?
February 15th, 2011 at 5:47 pm
Tom Chambers! Gotta be on the list. They actually called him The White Hole when he was playing.
February 15th, 2011 at 6:00 pm
Moses has the worst assist % of anybody in the HOF at 6.0%, on 25.6% usage. Mchale is fourth worst, at 8.1 ast%, with 22.4% usage.
February 16th, 2011 at 12:37 am
One thing to consider is some of these guys are assisters and some of them are assistees. There's no real problem with taking the shot that was set up for you. "Black Holeyness" is more what you think of when a player takes a lot of unassisted non-transition shots, I think.
February 16th, 2011 at 12:42 am
#11
It looks to me like the original graphic is using assists per game and usg% as the axes in order to highlight Kobe and Rondo. Which is really pretty deceptive.
February 16th, 2011 at 3:02 am
Silver SnR has a nice article on Kobe's black hole rating.
http://www.silverscreenandroll.com/2011/2/11/1987878/where-black-holes-meet-geometry-kobe-bryant-and-the-next-evolution-of
February 16th, 2011 at 8:55 am
where the hell is JR Smith?
I swear he probably belongs at the top somewhere.
February 16th, 2011 at 10:09 am
My vote goes to Elvin Hayes. He didn't care if he was triple-teamed. He was jackin' it up.
February 16th, 2011 at 4:55 pm
Love how USC's two most recent first round draft pick's are nos. 1 and 2. No question that it's an illustrative stat.
February 18th, 2011 at 12:25 am
Where's Jameer?
February 18th, 2011 at 6:55 pm
Really, really interesting. I had never heard the phrase "black hole" used in this way when it comes to basketball and basketball players who never shoot. I imagine they're called "black hole players" because once the ball gets sucked into their vicinity, the ball never comes back out? I love the expression.... and the stats you provided certainly are revealing.